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Sam

First Snow Storm of this Winter

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Here is what Dave from Wxrisk is saying about this weekend's snow storm on the evening of Tuesday, December 4th:

 

As I have been saying the GFS FV3 Has been far more consistent and pretty darn impressive. 6z GFS FV3 Has all of Virginia -except for Hampton roads- in at least a foot of snow ... with 10-22" even into DC & BAL Delmarva & south NJ.

 

There is plenty of other model support from the GFS & European ENSEMBLES which supports scenario. Now will there be widespread 12-20" over soooo much of western NC and VA as THIS Model is showing over Richmond and Charlottesville Roanoke Lynchburg Mananas into DC and nw third of NC.

 

** I DO NOT KNOW FOR CERTAIN AT THIS TIME ***
But here is they Key-- this IS going to be a long DURATION even -- for some 24-30 hrs long. Moderate SNOW = 1/2 per hr. Do the math ... that 12 inches. Moreover SOMEONE in sw va / nw NC/ central VA IS going see several hours of heavy snow -- 1" + per hour. Do the Math.

Indeed the 6z GFS ensemble has Roakoke Lynchburg southern hafl of VA piedmont and southern half of Shenandoah valley in 24+ hrs of snow.

 

THE NORTH EDGE... this is the thickest part. Stanton / Cville Freddysburg could see 12" but But Manassas 6" and DC 3 or zero .

 
 
 
 
 
 

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sounds good to me....bring it on.  I know here in Mechancisville it is flurrying tonight :)

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Sadness.....

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apparently this storm has shifted north some based on the forecasts i saw yesterday to the one i caught this morning.

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47264877_1969920056388576_91356012834895
 
 
Wxrisk.com
3 PM Wednesday Update on Weekend Storm
 

FULL UPDATE 3PM OR SO FOR THE WEEKEND...

from Accuweather ( Accu- blunder) for Sunday : "Parts of central and western North Carolina, northwestern South Carolina, northeastern Georgia, southern West Virginia and southern Virginia should be preparing for major winter storm, travel difficulties and disruptions to daily activities from Saturday to Monday. Part of this area may be on the receiving end of *** feet of snow"

 

WELCOME TO 3 DAYS AGO....also I dont know why central TV mets still doing the mostly rain no snow mantra again in RIC it may not stay all snow BUT a large portion of this will be snow. Could THEY be right and could I be wring? Yes of course. But the data and the evidence does NOT support that kind of forecast

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958-of-americans-scream-holy-carp-right-

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J, in Richmond, everyone runs to the grocery store and then drives into a ditch.

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Yes, but you all know how to handle snow and ice hockey.

 

We don't.

 

Big difference.

 

Be safe.

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3 hours ago, Sam said:

Yes, but you all know how to handle snow and ice hockey.

 

We don't.

 

Big difference.

 

I wish that was true. If so most people would stay off the roads but they don't. It seems as if the worst winter drivers are the only ones on the road when we get bad snowstorms. 

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5 hours ago, Sam said:

Yes, but you all know how to handle snow and ice hockey.

 

We don't.

 

Big difference.

 

Be safe.

We sure do know how to handle it 😏

D5B2A2E6-4CD1-4ED6-916D-04D1D36444AA.png

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I used to be a big Flyers fan but have lost interest when the Flyers failed to have good teams.

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I am gonna throw some ribs and pork butt on the smoker on saturday i think so if we get snowed in i can eat good for a few days :)

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5 hours ago, flyfisher said:

I am gonna throw some ribs and pork butt on the smoker on saturday i think so if we get snowed in i can eat good for a few days :)

We are on the snow/rain line.

 

Depending on how strong the low becomes between today and Sunday will determine if we get a 2 to 3 inch dusting or 8 to 12 inch clobbering.

 

All we can do is sit back and wait and watch some football, basketball and ice hockey on TV as long as we have power.

 

Let's hope for the best outcome in our favor.

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Patiently waiting for DT's update but looks like I will be spared.  Still getting the truck in for an oil change today and will gas it up just in case.  

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6 hours ago, TOXIC said:

Patiently waiting for DT's update but looks like I will be spared.  Still getting the truck in for an oil change today and will gas it up just in case.  

We may be spared. Hope so. I hate snow.

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On 12/5/2018 at 3:37 PM, J Francho said:

958-of-americans-scream-holy-carp-right-

@J Francho Do you really say "HOLY CARP"? Hardcore fisherman right there.....

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On 12/7/2018 at 6:02 PM, Steveo-1969 said:

Do you really say "HOLY CARP"?

I'm from New York, so there's probable a few f-bombs thrown in.

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28 minutes ago, J Francho said:

I'm from New York, so there's probable a few f-bombs thrown in.

That's so *bleep*ing true!

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14+ inches at my home in Richmond.

 

Waiting for snow plows to arrive and save us.

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21 minutes ago, Sam said:

14+ inches at my home in Richmond.

We just add 10 minutes to our commute.  Stay safe!

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We dodged a bullet here in the middle Peninsula; however, just north of us

in Williamsburg, a few inches. My eldest had to drive to work up there as the

temps dropped, lots of cars spun out due to slick conditions along the Colonial

Parkway.

 

Another son out near Farmville said they got over 12".

 

And @J Francho, I absolutely hated the commute to Rochester back when I 

worked downtown in the 90s. I remember days driving home (Caledonia) and

the sun was directly in my eyes on 490, and the road was a sheet of ice. I loved 

the summers, but hated the winters. Potholes big enough to swallow Ford Fiestas,

LOL. But yeah, unless an act of God intervened, not even skating rink highways

stopped the commute.

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Funny you mention it.  490 was a parking lot this morning.  All it takes is a couple of fender benders and the commute immediately quadruples.  Caledonia to ROC is a long haul.

 

Good ole' ROC

image_83dfd822-f739-40b1-a226-e5045ce2e0

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