I read many posts from guys who want to be professional fishermen and are seeking sponsors.

I was wondering what is the statistical probability of actually making the Classic?

Of course, statistics was the most difficult class I took in college and I was elated to get a C and put that course behind me.

So let's see what we have.  My numbers may not be that correct but I think it will give us an idea if we start with 1 million bass fishermen.

Number of bass fishermen in the USA 1,000,000

Number of Elite Series Fishermen

Sorry, computer somehow posted the post before I was finished.  So here we go.

Number of Elite Series Fishermen   111

Number of Classis Fishermen           50

So, let's say you want to move up to the Elite Series of about 111 people out of 1,000,000 trying to make it into the Elite Series. That totals .000111 and the probability is very low, around one tenth of a percent.

Then, if you make the Elite Series and are one of the 111 fishermen going for the Classic, and only 38 of the 50 make the Classic, with the remaining 12 coming from the tours and Federation, your chances of making the Classic from the Elite Series ranks is only 38 out of 111 = 34%.

So now we know how difficult it is to make it into the Classic.

We all know how hard it is to make it into the NFL, Major League Baseball or the NBA but it seems just as difficult, if not more difficult, to make it to the Classic.  Are these bass pros good, or what?

What we need is a math teacher or math major to work this out correctly.

Anyone out there can help with this math problem?

I am neither a math teacher nor major. But it seems to me if you want to look at it as two separate events, that is, qualifying for the Elite Series, then making the Classic, it would be .000111 x .34 = .0000377

This, like other such exercises, depends on a false assumption, namely, that all of the 1,000,000 anglers are of equal ability.

Changing the subject, does anyone remember the Conseco Challenge of a few years back, when if you entered, Conseco would pay $1,000,000 to any entrant who guessed the top six finishers in the FLW event in the right order? I computed the odds and had it verified by math people: the probability of winning was unimaginably low, 1 in 26 trillion!!

Sam, whats the statistical possibility that your first name and a guy that I met, and became good friends,  on my first BASS tournament last year is the same? The Sam I had as a boater on KY Lake, had never fished a BASS tournament before in his life, came in third in that tournament, didn't enter the next at Iowa, got talked into entering tha last 3 Northern Tour Events, and is now leaving for the Bassmaster Classic Sunday. He ended up 2nd on the northern tour last year got invited to the Classic and Elite Tour this year. He turned down the elite, but he's fishing the classic, I hope you all will rute for him, as will I. He's a great stick, and the nicest guy you'de ever want to meet. Go get'em Sam Lashlee, hit a homer!!!

We all know how hard it is to make it into the NFL, Major League Baseball or the NBA but it seems just as difficult, if not more difficult, to make it to the Classic. Are these bass pros good, or what?

Don't forget about the NHL.  Sorry, gotta give some love for the sport that I enjoy the most. Probably the only sport that has true action and no stopping every 10 seconds and waiting for it to start up again for over 30 seconds.

12/x  x = your state federation number for state championship

1/96 then if you win the divisionals.

1/6 if you make it to the Federation National Championship.

give or take  a few