Most big Northeast lakes are thawed already.. I am not used to open water this time of year, water temps are 36-38F. When should fishing start to pick up?

For me bass fishing heats up with the jerkbait bite at 45-47*.  

I caught one over four pounds last weekend when the water temperature where I fish got up to 44* in one of the shallow bays.   This weekend, after a week of cold weather and some nights in the teens, I got skunked yesterday in 39* water and I'm staying home today (t's 30* out right now with a forecasted high of 43* and winds to 15 MPH).

When the water gets above 45*, I start to feel I have a reasonable chance to catch a few.  :-)

Tight lines,

Bob