Ok, lake is still 90% froze over. They turned on some aerators the last few weeks and has opened up a football field sized corner of the lake. This end has been pretty good for early season fishing in the past. I have fished it 3 times without so much as a bump. I haven't checked the water temp but I am guessing mid 30s since the area around it still froze. What kind of temp range should I expect to see some activity within casting distance (up to 15 fow)?

I've caught in 39* temps on susp. rogues, in 4=8 ft. Those fish should move up as the water warms. It won't take much. A pond by my house had no activity 2 days ago and today there was a school of 8-10" largemouth cruising.

Try a mucky or rocky bottom, as these draw warmth.

I've caught LMB thru the ice in upstate NY

keep fishing.  If they are there, you'll get a bite.

Sooner or later.  8-)

A relatively shallow lake by me just iced out.  I put my boat out two days after the majority of the ice melted.  Water temps were in high 30s near deeper water and water 8ft deep read 41 degrees. 

Fish will be very lethargic so fish Slow....

Some waters have good enough bass habitat close to shore for bass to be there all winter. Other waters may consolidate fish elsewhere. The problem with that aerator is that it forces you to fish there, and they may not be there -or many of them. Get into good bass habitat first. Then as water warms bass get more active, wider range of movement and more feeding.

The reasons for spring shoreward movement is twofold: heat can attract prey (and bass too for the heat but esp for the prey), and later to spawning substrate. For the former, if bass are generally present, the greater the heat gradient the better draw for prey and bass. Ultimately, I like to see a 8-10F diff between heated shallows and the "cold sink", but I take what i can get -just like the fish do.

As to your particular water, only ground-truthing will tell you.

Thanks, gonna try it again tomorrow.  Its been a long and cold winter.  I figured it would be awhile before things got going.