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tyrius.

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Everything posted by tyrius.

  1. Definately true. The actual cost for this deal won't really be known for 10 years (the length of the residential guarantee), but it will be less than $326 billion. The cost will also be offset by the dividend payments on the $7 billion of preferred stock. 8% of $7 billion is what $560 million a year? So over the 10 year guarantee period the gov't will get $5.6 billion in interest payments or have their $7 billion in preferred stock bought back.
  2. I don't think that your statement is factually correct. The feds are injecting $20 billion into Citi and then guaranteeing $306 billion of assets (the second part is not an injection of capital). The first $26 billion of losses on the $306 billion of guaranteed assets are on Citi and not the fed. After that first $26 billion then Citi owns 10% of the remainder of losses. So, in the EXTREMELY unlikely event that these assets become worth absolutely nothing the feds would have lost $272 billion (306-26=280*.9=252+20=272). For payment of this guarantee the feds get $7 billion in preferred stock with an 8% dividend. The gov't is also getting warrants 254 million shares of common stock with a strike price of $10.61.
  3. Now that's the truth. The current market conditions are FAR from rational.
  4. That cat's showing signs of life!
  5. I know enough to make it look like I know what I'm talking about and to know that I should never invest in anything that I don't fully understand. I'm far from an expert though. 8-) You'll find that alot. Did you listen to the congrssional hearings on steroids in baseball? That's a prime example of them not knowing anything about the subject.
  6. Never said you were and never meant to imply any such thing. Also, no fair changing your post while I was replying to it!!!! These Collatorized Debt Obligations (CDO's) are incredibly complex. When I worked for Arthur Andersen (YEARS ago) I did the due diligence on some of them (basically assessing whether or not the make up of the securitization was as described in the offering). Taking thousands and thousands of mortgages and putting all of them into one pile and then slicing that pile up into thousands of investment vehicles leaves some muddy waters. Who really owns each mortgage? Can individual mortgages be modified? Who has to approve the modification? and on and on ad infinitum. It basically boils down to the individual CDO investors were not purchasing specific mortgages, they were purchasing portions of a traunch of the CDO that had been rated AAA, A, BBB, or whatever by the rating agencies. I currently work in internal audit for a medium sized corporation.
  7. I think you'll find that some senators do NOT always know what they are talking about. These current times have caused a lot of people to question everything. Most people never even thought twice about their large bank going under so they probably didn't care about the FDIC limit. They knew it was there, but disregarded it. When the banks started failing then they got a wake up call and started moving their money around to make sure that it was insured. Earlier you mentioned money market funds and now you're referencing CD's. Money markets initially weren't covered by the FDIC as they are typically investements in commercial paper, short term bonds, etc. A CD is still a bank deposit and was always covered by the FDIC (up to $100,000). The biggest confustion (that I'm aware of) came with people thinking that the Money Markets were covered when they weren't. I think that the change that raised the FDIC limit also changed the FDIC to temporarily cover money market accounts. He definately seems to know what he's talking about. Doesn't he work in Finance/Investment Banking?
  8. Hopefully, by other side you don't mean the IN side!!! It kind of looks like you're giving the fish an "exam"! What's the deal with the fish's fin too? Looks like it was all messed up.
  9. Question: Do bass eat ________? Answer: Yes Insert anything that you want to in the blank and if it moves a bass will eat it. They'll also eat things that don't move too (deadsticking).
  10. Where are you hiding your other finger?
  11. The 100G limit on insurance on deposit accounts is well known. I can't imagine anyone having that much money in a simple savings account and not being aware of this limitation. They publish it EVERYWHERE.
  12. The uncertainty is what is really killing everyone. Mortgage backed securities is a prime example. No one really knows what the default rate will be on each asset. This unknown has led to a virtual elimination of demand for purchasing them. This causes all of those securities to be marked to market at an extremely low value, because no one is buying so market price is very low. However, many of these assets will end up with positive value over the pay back period. The problem comes in identifying which is going to be positive and which is going to be worthless. Leverage took this fear and multiplied it a number of times too. There's nothing like buying a CDO and levering it up to get "stock" returns and then having that asset tank. The CDO doesn't have to fall far before the investor has lost EVERYTHING. This is just one example of the current state of fear that is driving the market into massive amounts of volatility and treasuries to their lowest yield ever (less fear). This fear is permeating most sectors (banks, manufacturers, commodities, etc). Until this fear works itself out the equity and debt markets are not going to function rationally. I'm with Micro in thinking that a depression is HIGHLY unlikely. I don't know that I'd be plowing money into the stock market now though. I'm probably a little more risk averse than he is.
  13. Are you saying that all derivatives will be unwound and cease to exist? What would be the reasoning behind that?
  14. I read Mitt Romney's OpEd in the Times regarding this and find that I agree with him. Any bailout money should be used as Debtor in Possession financing (if no other money is available) and to guarantee warranties on the new cars. This will allow the car companies the benefits of shedding a lot of their inefficiencies while keeping the consumer confident in the purchase of a new car.
  15. They can't be in the hole for the entire investment. In 1993 the S&P500 was in the mid 400's. Now it's 790 (but falling). So, the initial investments (in the 400's) are up 75%. $1,000 invested in 1993 in an S&P 500 fund would be worth roughly $1,750 today.
  16. I'd move up in size from the Paca Chunk to the Paca Craw and from the Rage Chunk to the Rage Lobster. I think those two are going to give you the most thump for commercially available trailers. You may be able to find some odd creature baits with tons of appendages that also have lots of movement. For example, look at the Verticle Lures Creature X or the Wave Tiki Platypus. I've never used these, but they look like they'll provide a LOT of action. You could also REALLY get crazy and try a Paca Frog.
  17. Same station on the way home from work was $1.91!!!
  18. I use whatever gman sells.
  19. Here's GMAN's tutorial. http://www.bassresource.com/bass_fishing_forums/YaBB.pl?num=1196818321
  20. I know that your keyboard's shift key isn't broken because you typed an exclamation point in the above sentance. How about using it to capitalize the proper words? That's one grammar lesson for you today.
  21. The proper use of grammar should be learned. One should not need a crutch such as a grammar check or a spell check to be able to write. Isn't this already possible? DEFINATELY NOT!!!! The discussion of politics adds conflict and confrontation where it is not needed. This site is about bass FISHING and not one's political views. :-? I'm sorry are emoticons supposed to replace words? I think what you were "saying" was that you found a spelling error. Would you like a medal for your efforts?
  22. You can delete the original question. You can't delete other's posts though.
  23. The proper use of grammar should be learned. One should not need a crutch such as a grammar check or a spell check to be able to write. Isn't this already possible? DEFINATELY NOT!!!! The discussion of politics adds conflict and confrontation where it is not needed. This site is about bass FISHING and not one's political views.
  24. Very good jigs at a very good price. I'm working on another order as we speak.
  25. Almost 7 lbs. This is the biggest bass I've ever seen out of the water.

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