What would you throw in ponds this time of year?

Is that the air temp or water temp? If it's the water temp I wouldn't be fishing topwater. I'm guessing that's your air temps though since our water temps are in the low 40's still. My favorite late fall/early winter topwaters are buzzbaits, poppers, and walking baits. A floating minnow bait like an original rapala twitched on the surface can be deadly in colder water temps also.

Im thinking a buzzbait or spook

when the water gets cold, dont be afraid of big topwaters, but go SLOW. I had some really nice action during the winter on top, but with very SLOW presentations of relatively large lures.

That was caught mid February on top with an 8" floating lure

NGaHB

Just caught my PB on a chug bug a few weeks back in the middle of the day.