Sam

If this is true, we need to start another thread. Chris Justus, MeteorologistLike Page 14 hrs · RETURN OF FLORENCE: The remnants of Florence remain very disorganized and non tropical. However, it is moving into more favorable conditions. Steering currents ...do have it heading back toward the East Coast. It now has a 20% chance of turning tropical by early next week. As of now, I do NOT expect anything strong. I'll keep a close eye on it. It seems that if it does become tropical again, its name would change to Kirk. That is because it has lost many of its "Florence" characteristics. Like my page for updates: Chris Justus, Meteorologist

4:30 AM Tuesday September 18, 2018 36 customers are still without power in my neighborhood by Boshers Dam on the Historic James River. A tornado went over our house and knocked down trees on Cherokee Road, one of the four ways in and out of our area. We lost a tree in the woods behind our house. Our generator has been on since 4 PM Monday afternoon. Our son had a terribled time trying to get to our house to pick up his puppy with many streets closed by fallen trees and debris. Buggs Island is closed to camping and fishing as it is expexcted to go to 19-feet above normal pool this week and our bass club has a tournament on Buggs this weekend. Plus the NASCAR races on Friday and Saturday add to the confusion. We have to be ready to vector around any closed roads in or out of my neighborhood this morning. And we thought we dodged a bullet when the remnants of Florence came around and clobbered us. Hope all getting this post are safe.

The greater Richmond geographical area got hit today with tornados and heavy rain from the remnants of Hurricane Florence. Had one tree bite the dust behind my house in the woods. No damages to any property. Lots of roads closed by my house due to falling trees and power is out in the neighborhood. Our sump pump was putting water out like crazy from under our house and the back yard is a water wonderland. Our whole house generator saved us and we have had it running since 4 PM. Dominion Power says we should power back by 1 AM on Tuesday morning. So far some major damage and one guy was killed when the tornado destroyed a warehouse. Hope the storms go away, soon. Raul, Buggs Island is off limits to water sports and fishing for the moment as the Corps of Engineers expects the lake to rise to 319, which is 19 feet higher than normal pool. No use of campgrounds or boat ramps until further notice. My bass club has a tournament this Sunday and hopefully the guys can fish it. I am going to the NASCAR race on Saturday and will miss the Sunday tournament since I will not get home until after midnight and would have to leave by 3 AM Sunday morning to make the blast off time. So every now and then we get hit, too. Be safe.

Practice, practice, practice. Remember to swing rod to the left or right waist height when using treble hooks. Otherwise, lower the rod's tip; reel in the slack; and cross their eyes, ducking if you miss the hook set.

Hope you can contact your family and all is well. Hate to read about the flooding. Water and electricity are two things we can't control. Please let us know that your family is OK and the flood waters recede rapidly. Watch out for animals seeking dry ground inside your homes.

They are never too small to be harvested!!!

Wxrisk.com 4:00 PM Saturday, September 15, 2008 FLORENCE RAINS SUNDAY /MONDAY... HOW HEAVY?-- think western half of VA all of southwest VA western NC image #1 shows actual Total rainfall past 72 hrs over eastern/central NC and it is well every bit as impressive and record smashing as the model data suggested it would be. IMAGE #2 saturday 4pm RADAR... painfully slow moving Florence still has HUGE inflow from the ocean INTO eastern NC (Moorehead City) keeping rainfall enhanced and preventi...ng it i from dying out IMAGE #3 RAINFALL FORECAST FOR NEXT 3 DAYS... See More 41 Comments 99 Shares

Hopefully the storm will go further west before heading north and hit Tennessee in lieu of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Still a dangerous situation out there.

I must be lucky as I have had only one "episode" with a dock owner and it wasn't even a dock. On the "Hot Side of Lake Anna" there is a beautiful property with a bulkhead that runs along the bank for 200 feet. When you start to fish the area the owner runs his two labs out of the house and the dogs head right to and jump into the lake. The property owner then starts to throw balls or sticks to the dogs and they bring them back to a place where they can get out of the water and return them to the owner who throws them again. This definitely stirs up the water and the bass and other fish leave. Other than for this property owner, I usually speak to the dock owners. Many suggest places to fish by their docks or other places. I even met a lady who is an LSU alumni and we talked about the Fighting Tigers football and baseball while she enjoyed the sun. She saw my gold LSU drinking cup on the boat which started the conversation. If you are nice to others they will be nice to you. However, we all know this is not the rule and we can always run into some dummies who think they own the water. If we are kind and avoid any problems we will have more fun than the dock owners. P.S. A friend had a property owner come out of his house carrying a shot gun and threatened my friend. My friend called the local sheriff's office after the tournament and made a complaint. A few days later he was told that a deputy visited the property owner and set him straight on the issue.

Traffic is horrible now. Fairfax is really built up with businesses and homes. Maybe you can visit DC and Fairfax in the future.

No, living in Virginia but grew up in New Orleans. Mother's family are Cajuns. I get lots of Cajun stuff on Facebook and via email.

If it works, it works. When you are a Cajun and a hurricane is coming your way, you want to make sure your roof doesn’t become part of the “ain’t dere no more” conversation.

What is not being discussed on TV and in the news abuot the hurricane is the situation with the wild animals. Alligators, snakes, raccoons, squirrels, possums, deer, and other animals will seek high and dry ground, meaning they are coming into neighborhoods and into houses. Even if your property escapes wind or water damage, you better be really careful when you return home and enter your house. And the wild animals will be hungry so watch your dogs and cats closely. Be sure to post pics of your home and neighborhood when you return home. Good luck to all in North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia plus Virginia, Maryland and West Virginia.

Could happen. NCAA is on the schools to schedule top schools in lieu of cupcakes. I know LSU will be having home and home games in the future with Texas and also Clemson in 2025 and 2026 and other big football schools. The SEC and ACC teams play the cupcakes for three reasons: 1. Political (UK and Louisville) 2. Easy wins (LSU and Southeastern) to get to the magic number of six wins to qualify for a bowl game. 3. To pay the smaller schools a lot of money so they can continue to come back and get their brains beat in, like Appy State, Alabama State and the University of Richmond. Stay tuned. We will see more top games in the future.

MIDDAY UPDATE ON FLORENCE WED 9/12/18 Sep 12, 2018 | Posted by David Tolleris | THE DTs | 0 comments | STARDATE 201809.12 Today I am doing this update on hurricane Florence the old fashioned -- no audio this afternoon no video just a regular ordinary of blog d update. I will start out by making some assertions or forecasts and then explain why (the reasoning) I am forecasting this . 1 ...keep in mind people that just because the hurricane is not going to impact your area as bad as it looked 12...24.. or 36.. hours ago doesn't mean that Florence is not going to be a extremely powerful and dangerous hurricane for somebody. Also... I am seeing a lot of reports on Twitter from Wilmington North Carolina area on the beaches which are showing a LOT of homes which have not board up and people who have not evacuated. This is really bad and disturbing 2 Yes the south trend is real and all models are showing that. But also the West trend that I have talked about over the past few days has at developed. 3. Florence COULD weaken some as it approaches the Carolina Coast especially by Wilmington then weaken steadily as she drifts southwest down the Carolina Coast to perhaps Savannah Georgia. 4 here is a possibility that the remains of the FLORENCE could get pull up towards the Appalachians into southern Pennsylvania ... western New York State next week. However even if that were to happen much the rain will have already been squeezed out of the system. 5 it looks like Florence is undergoing another eye wall replacement cycle and it is becoming larger--that is to say the EYE is becoming larger. This is also supported by the fact that they have found hurricane force winds almost 100 miles from the center. The fact that we are entering another eye wall replacement cycle means that the significant intensification of Florence is probably over. At least for the next 24 hours . But beyond that ...conditions become somewhat less than ideal has the hurricane approaches the Carolina Coast. But some of these satellite pictures over the next few days will be quite impressive as Florence approaches the coast. This image shows some of the radar model SIMULATIONS of what Florence will look like as it approaches Wilmington and you can see that the eye of the system was quite large. This next image shows the current wind shear across the southwest Atlantic -- including the area around and up to the Southeast US coastal areas. As you can see there is significant shear ahead of the system as it approaches the coast and that shear maybe inhibiting the intensification. Between this moderate sheer in around the hurricane and the eye wall replacement cycles the threat or concern that Florence might make category 5 --is in my opinion -over. Here is the WED morning European model and it doesn't show any significant changes. We can clearly see however is that as the hurricane approaches Wellington it turns to the West and then stalls ...and then begins to drift southwest down the South Carolina Coast -- perhaps reaching the northeast coast of Georgia. The European started showing this yesterday whereas most of the other models which are showing Florence stalling along the Carolina Coast. UKMET MODEL FROM EARLY WED MORNING Initially the European solution of drifting Florence southwest down the South Carolina Coast was greeted with a great deal of skepticism and snicker and snide comments but now all the models of doing it. If we take a look at the morning GFS FV3 - which is the new and improved GFS model that does NOT have the same flaws of regular GFS model has... it also shows the same sort of thing: a stall near Wilmington or Myrtle Beach then a drift to the southwest down the SC coast weakening as it does so. Here I present the last three runs of the hurricane models and you can clearly see a bend to the WEST -- which is what I was talking out three days ago when nobody else was -- then a drift to the southwest overtime. The drift to the southwest is not a mistake that just happens to be showing up on ALLLLL of the models. When you see all of the the model data showing the same thing ...they are doing it for reason. You could make the argument that one model has had a bad run... or has some bad data.... but cannot make that argument when all the data is showing the same thing. SO WHY ALL ALL THE MODELS SHOWING THE STALL AND SOUTHWEST DRIFT ? It has to do with the enormous trough which develops over the western third of the country and southwest Canada over the next 24 hours. Like I stated in the podcast and in other recent updates this trough is going to cause an enormous ridge to form over the Eastern Conus. Hypothetically if we did not have Florence ....the next 7 to 10 days over the eastern third of the country would feature above and Much above normal temperatures and very little sign of Autumn like conditions. Now keep in mind folks that when the hurricane stalls along the coast ... it is going to begin to weaken at a pretty steady pace. WHY? well if in fact Florence does stall along the NC/ SC Coast for more than 24 hours... then it is going to cause the sea surface temperatures to cool off. This process is known as UPWELLING -- a process where the warm waters at the surface can mix with colder waters underneath. This produces cooler ocean water temperatures at the surface and the hurricanes begins the weaken. But in addition hurricanes are large systems and this is very true with an expanding Hurricane like Florence. This means that she is going to start pulling in air from the Midwest and entraining that cooler drier air non tropical air into the heart of the hurricane. This will cause additional weakening or at least a cap on any chance of intensification as it approaches the Southeast US coast and then drifts down the coast. Indeed many the weather models show significant weakening of the hurricane once it reaches Wilmington and drifting down the coast. We can see this on the European model ...on the GFS FV2 ... and the British model... and all of the Manchurian models FINALLY HOW GOOD HAS THE EUROPEAN MODEL BEEN? one of the charges that its level against rom time to time esspecially by weather weenies who think they know what they are doing because they kniow where to find the GFS model on the Internet or because the chase tornadoes... is that I only use European model and/ or I have a bias towards European model. Whenever I see that charge being made against me... I know that the person making that charge is moron. It's just that simple. There are plenty times I have rejected the European model. The fact that they don't know about it is not my problem. This image shows the consistency of the European model over the past 3 days. As you can see except for one or two model runs it has consistently showed a landfall on the NC/ SC border. If you compare that plot to the regular GFS the differences are huge. Here is the GFS FV3 plots tracks for Florence over the past three days and as you can see it is also significantly closer to North Carolina South Carolina and almost the same as the European model. This is a very good trend and sign for the future GFS model as the new version continues to take over from the a truly abysmally awful regular GFS model. Lastly the other thing that I have e tried to stress over the past few days is you simply cannot just look at weather models. You have to a look at the entire pattern and see what the weather models is trying to say. When the European model began to show would drift southward two days ago ... the question many asked was " what the hell is the European model doing ? It can't be right! " . That is the wrong perspective. The question that weather hobbyists.. weather weenies and professional meteorologist should have been asking is WHY is the model doing this?" Is it seeing something that other models are not seeing.? " When that question is asked it becomes obvious what the European was seeing something first. More later

Southwest Airlines has cancelled all Thursday and Friday flights into Norfolk, and probably other airports impacted, too. If the storm moves south after it hits we could have Atlanta International Airport have lots of cancelled flights. Daimien's Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center Major Category 4 Hurricane Florence is back at 140 MPH Sustained Wind Speeds. Its eye-wall replacement cycle is complete and its ramping up. Its projected to make landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane Potentially Category 5. Hurricane Warnings are in effect. This is a Life Threatening Storm.

1 PM Update from Dave at Wxrisk.com on Tuesday, September 11th: Wxrisk.com UPDATE 12z "regular "GFS MODEL CAVES.. SHIFT WAY SOUTH AS DO ALL THE 12Z HURRICANE MODELS The information I am presenting here is CUTTING EDGE brand new info... it will appear on most TV stations at 5pm and I think there will be a shift on the NHC track at the 5pm advisory . In addition to the video which I presume many of you have seen (and if you have not you should because well I love the sound my own voice and I am sure you do too...) what is significant here is that the operational or regular GFS model ...the one which I been complaining about for days that is deeply flawed because of the one way the model handles the ocean atmosphere ...has made a dramatic shift to the southwest. As you saw the video this morning and over the last several days the GFS model has been consistently showed Florence getting close to Cape Hatteras NC then stalling over or close to Cape Hatteras for two days. The other models all last night shifted southwest down the coast with landfall at Wilmington to Myrtle Beach. . As you can see from the image the 12z TUES GFS model has shifted significantly to the southwest and no longer brings Florence up to Cape Hatteras. The image on the RIGHT is the previous GFS model from just 12 hours ago and you can see the significant shift. The second image is the 12z Tues the hurricane models -- notice that once Florence makes landfall most of the hurricane models turn her WEST ..keeping Florence mostly in North Carolina. See More

Where is the Cajun Navy when you need them? Just hung up speaking with a client who lives in Chesapeake near the NC boarder and she and her family (plus dog) are in Richmond, now. Husband works at the hospital so he can't leave until Monday. She told me the mayor of Norfolk just released a mandatory evacuation notice to the city's residents. Glad he released the evacuation notice now and did not wait for tomorrow. I-64 is a mess on a good day. And 460 will probably be clogged with tractor-trailers who are trying to avoid the crazy car and SUV drivers on I-64. This is not looking good, folks.

Storm is shifting south. Good for Virginia but not good for North Carolina. Here is DT's midday video explaining what is going on.

With all the rain we have been having I expect lots of trees to come down knocking out power. I agree with you. This could be one heck of a storm and having trees close to your house is not the best scenario. Keep us posted as best you can for as long as you can during the storm. Hopefully, the storm will move south of Wilmington when it makes landfall, taking it around Raleigh and then into southwest Virginia. Koz, check out the Weather Channel and Wxrisk.com on Facebook for updates. Wxrisk.com is usually correct in its predictions as Dave uses the European model, which the Weather Channel seems to be going to at this time. Storm may make landfall south of Wilmington, towards your location. You and your family can head south into Georgia to escape it. Others in North Carolina will have to head north, south or west in hope of finding a motel/hotel room and fighting all that traffic escaping the area. Please do not stay. This is a very powerful hurricane and the property damage when it hits the coast could be very high. For political reasons, the governor has no other option. Remember New Orleans and how the mayor, governor, and their staffs failed in protecting people in that situation. Mississippi did great with their evacuation efforts but not Louisiana and you know the consequences of Katrina are still being felt along the Gulf coast. Let us know what you do and be safe. Looking forward to your posts after you return home.

Not one of the longest... THE LONGEST! We LSU fans were very upset when Franks switched to Florida. But it was LSU's fault for firing Miles and leaving the head coaching position with an interim coach. We always wondered what LSU could accomplish with a QB like Franks. It is enjoyable watching Franks play for Florida and I hope he does well, other than for the LSU game, of course. Now beat Florida State!!! SEC SEC SEC SEC SEC SEC SEC SEC

Daimien's Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center Hurricane Florence is bombing out. It has gone from a Category 3 to 4 in a matter of 3 Hours. This is a DEADLY and potentially Catastrophic hurricane that will Impact the Carolinas.

Day 1 after front moves through = blue bird skies and difficult bite. Day 2 after front moves through = some cloud cover or blue bird skies but bite gets better. Day 3 after front moves through = fishing back to normal for the area. Not rules in stone but will give you some insight on what happens after a cold front moves through an area.

This morning Dave is telling us he believes the storm will stay in North Carolina and southwest Virginia and that the rest of Virginia and all of South Carolina and West Virginia will be spared. His afternoon update should shed some additional forecast information on the storm's projected path. Friday and Saturday football in North Carolina may have to be rescheduled. Will post Dave's afternoon post when it comes out. And one of the three major TV stations in Richmond is now telling us what Dave has been saying this past week regarding where the storm may track. Go out and do some fishing as the storm approaches but be sure to give yourself enough time to get home, safely.

I hope Dave from Wxrisk.com is correct in his forecast. If so, eastern and northern Virginia will be spared the impact of a very strong hurricane. Here is what DT posted, with my spelling and grammar corrections. 4:40 PM on Sunday, September 9, 2018 from Wxrisk.com SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTs - The 12z SUNDAY ECMWF has come out and there are SIGNIFICANT developments . 1 . The European model again holds course with a direct hit atWilmington NC at 955 mb (more or less) which would place Florence as strong category 3 storm. 2 The Operational GFS is deeply flawed and very likely to be wrong and has no support for any other model of any kind. It should be ignored. That being said many of the local TV station will keep talking about it . Even the upgraded new GFS -- the GFS FV3- now agrees with the European model track 3 From there Florence Tracks NW around the western side of the ridge tracking close to between Raleigh and Charlotte into or over Greensboro NC 4 Florence moves NW into SW VA then dies. This results in massive rains of 12-25 inches of rain over NW NC, north central NC, all of southwest VA,, and all of Shenandoah Valley. This will lead to catastrophic flooding for some. This would include the metro areas of the of Greensboro, Winston Salem, and High Point areas plus Wytheville, Blacksburg, Roanoke, Martinsville, Danville, South Boston, Lynchburg, Bedford, Farmville, Charlottesville, Waynesboro, Staunton, Lexington, and Harrisonburg in Virginia, and the far southeastern hird of West Virginia including areas such as Bluefield, Princeton, Lewisburg, and maybe Snowshoe WVA. 5 From I-95 east rainfall conditions are much different with rainfall amounts generally under 5" and the winds would not probably reach over 45 miles an hour during the height of the event. This would be a major break for all of Hampton Roads, Richmond metro and northeast Virginia, and North Carolina as well as the entire Chesapeake Bay and the Delmarva. 6 Taken Verbatim, the 12z Sunday European Model has Florence taking a track a very similar to what we saw with hurricane Fran in 1996. The main difference here is that Florence stalls over SW VA. If this is correct then Florence is NOT going to be that bad for the eastern half of VA & northeast NC.