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Oil Prices Plunge

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By ADAM SCHRECK, AP Business Writer

7 minutes ago

NEW YORK - Oil prices shot up nearly $7 a barrel Friday, extending big gains from the previous day and racing toward an all-time high after a Morgan Stanley analyst predicted prices could hit $150 by the Fourth of July.

A further weakening of the dollar helped keep prices high by enticing overseas buyers armed with stronger currencies and other investors looking for a hedge against the greenback.

Light, sweet crude for July delivery jumped as much as $6.96 to $134.75 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, before easing slightly to $134.40, up $6.61.

Prices pushed sharply higher Friday after Morgan Stanley analyst Ole Slorer said he expected strong demand in Asia could drive prices to $150 by Independence Day, when millions of Americans are expected to take to the roads. Shipments from the Middle East are mimicking patterns seen in the third quarter last year, when Morgan Stanley based its "oil price spike" predictions on falling supplies in the Atlantic, he said.

"We made the same call using the same parameters, but now we are starting from much lower inventory levels," Slorer said.

Friday's surge builds on a $5.49 gain Thursday, which was the biggest single-day price increase in the history of the Nymex crude contract. That spike came as the dollar fell after the European Central Bank suggesting it could raise interest rates.

"We had a rally of something like $12 in about 24 hours. It makes no fundamental sense," said Stephen Schork, an analyst and trader in Villanova, Pa. "With oil pushing back up to the mid-$130s, it's the make it or break it point. If we go past that, we set the course for uncharted waters and head up toward $150."

Meanwhile, U.S. gas prices at the pump continued to hover just shy of an average $4 a gallon, easing only 0.3 cent from Thursday's record.

Drivers are now paying an average of $3.99 for a gallon of regular gas nationwide, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service; in many parts of the country, consumers are already paying well over $4. Retail diesel slipped a penny overnight to $4.76.

Pump prices are bound to rise even further if oil sustains its advance. James Cordier, president of Tampa, Fla.-based trading firm Liberty Trading Group, predicted prices could rise to $4.25 as early as the end of the month.

"Unfortunately, drivers cutting back isn't going to lower the price of gasoline any time soon," he said.

The dramatic reversal in what had been a weakening oil market began Thursday after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet suggested the bank could raise interest rates and the euro climbed against the dollar. When interest rates rise in Europe, or fall in the U.S., the dollar tends to weaken against the euro.

Many investors tend to buy commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation when the dollar is falling. Also, a weaker dollar makes oil less expensive to investors dealing in other currencies. Analysts believe the dollar's protracted decline has been a major reason why oil prices have nearly doubled in the past year.

The euro strengthened further against the greenback Friday. A Labor Department report showing the U.S. unemployment rate jumped half a percentage point to 5.5 percent last month its biggest monthly increase since 1986 could drag the greenback even lower in the days ahead.

"Unemployment jumping as it did today will be in the market for a long time and will continue to pressure the U.S. dollar," Cordier said.

Growing tensions in the Middle East may also have helped prop up oil prices. Israel sent aircraft, tanks and ground troops into the Gaza Strip on Friday, and a Cabinet minister hoping to replace embattled Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was quoted as saying Israel will attack Iran if it doesn't abandon its nuclear program.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 21.54 cents to $3.8962 a gallon while gasoline prices rose 12.32 cents to $3.4577 a gallon. Natural gas futures rose 24.8 cents to $12.767 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, July Brent crude shot up $5.65 to $133.19 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

THIS SUCKS

  • Super User

RW, I think you should rename your thread now. ;)

I just got Fox News and CNN alerts that the Dow has dropped 400 points on poor job news and surging oil prices.

Yeah, the thread should be named "OPEC destroys lower and middle class families worldwide"

  • Super User

The good news is that the higher it climbs the harder it will crash.  And it's going to crash.

High demand is, in large part, driving current prices.  Much of that demand comes from emerging markets in Asia - India and China.  India and China HEAVILY subsidize oil for their people.  Once the price gets too high, the government won't be able to subsidize ti enough and the high costs will be passed on to the average Indian or Chinese.  That lead balloon won't fly too long.    Demand will fall and so will prices.   It's inevitable.  

Here's a article from today...

Why Oil Prices Will Tank

As soon as I pay off my truck, I'm buying an electric car for my wife.  My new job pays for gas, so I'm not worried about me at the moment.  When technology will give me an electric, or water, or whatever powered 4x4 truck, I'll buy that.  

What I don't buy is that oil production will increase, because OPEC is making sure that they don't, which is leading to their incredibly high profits.  Unless the US enters into the market with the aforementioned reserves that were found then OPEC will continue to control the price of oil and thus, the quality of life for everyone in the Western world.  You thought terrorism was bad.  If they get a grasp on how much they could torque the rest of the world, it could get really ugly in a much more sinister way.

I've joked about bombing Saudi for the prices, but that won't really do anything.  But we could put serious pressure on OPEC...and this is no joke.  They might make it too costly for us to drive a car, but we can make it too costly for them to feed their country.  A huge percentage of food comes from the US farmer that these jerks are intentionally screwing.  You want to see a country of people turn against a government and cause some real change, take food from their mouths.  The OPEC higher-ups will never hurt for food, but when people see them rolling around in their palaces while the commoner is starving half to death, there will be a change.

I'd love to see farmers sell exported corn for $50 an ear while us locals eat it for less than $1.  How's that for poetic justice.

  • Super User
How's that for poetic justice.

Brian for prez!

I think I should run when I hit 35.  I'll lower the cost of lucky crafts, make Brent my director of natural resources, put a Rage Tail/Bass Resource paint job on Air Force One, starve OPEC, and make OPEC pay for the annual road trip to Brazil for peacock bass fishing.  Do I have your vote?? ;D

i heard bush wanted to drill in alaska but peta had a fit about it

what about the animals there... it's never been touched

i say go for it, i remember years ago there is a pipeline from alaska

to the us

the big men from opec siad it's not our fault.. then who do we blame

I'm telling you gas below two dollars a gallon is wishfull thinking I don't care how you slice it.  There is two much money being made somewhere for it to just go back down.  It won't happen until the economy crashes and people just can't afford to drive period.  I still say gas will be $5 a gal by nov if not sooner.

  • Super User
I'll lower the cost of lucky crafts,

Even the president doesn't have that kind of power ;)

  • Super User
As soon as I pay off my truck, I'm buying an electric car for my wife.  My new job pays for gas, so I'm not worried about me at the moment.  When technology will give me an electric, or water, or whatever powered 4x4 truck, I'll buy that.  

What I don't buy is that oil production will increase, because OPEC is making sure that they don't, which is leading to their incredibly high profits.  Unless the US enters into the market with the aforementioned reserves that were found then OPEC will continue to control the price of oil and thus, the quality of life for everyone in the Western world.  You thought terrorism was bad.  If they get a grasp on how much they could torque the rest of the world, it could get really ugly in a much more sinister way.

I've joked about bombing Saudi for the prices, but that won't really do anything.  But we could put serious pressure on OPEC...and this is no joke.  They might make it too costly for us to drive a car, but we can make it too costly for them to feed their country.  A huge percentage of food comes from the US farmer that these jerks are intentionally screwing.  You want to see a country of people turn against a government and cause some real change, take food from their mouths.  The OPEC higher-ups will never hurt for food, but when people see them rolling around in their palaces while the commoner is starving half to death, there will be a change.

I'd love to see farmers sell exported corn for $50 an ear while us locals eat it for less than $1.  How's that for poetic justice.

I'll drink to that!

The good news is that the higher it climbs the harder it will crash. And it's going to crash.

High demand is, in large part, driving current prices. Much of that demand comes from emerging markets in Asia - India and China. India and China HEAVILY subsidize oil for their people. Once the price gets too high, the government won't be able to subsidize ti enough and the high costs will be passed on to the average Indian or Chinese. That lead balloon won't fly too long. Demand will fall and so will prices. It's inevitable.

Here's a article from today...

Why Oil Prices Will Tank

I read that article too and it is just a pipe dream.  

No one seems to remember that just after 9/11, gas prices rose dramatically in only one day.  Oil prices fell soon after but gas prices never relented.  

Goverment Subsidies will continue in China and India as long as there is growth to be had.  They may not subsidize as much but make no mistake it will continue.  

Even if (and its a big if) the oil bubble bursts, it will only be an illusion.  The peak has been breached.  There is nothing at this point that will put more oil in the ground.  The remaining oil is less and hard to get out.

J

yea i remember that.. every where gas prices rose when i lived in MN

whoooo hooo i was the 100th reply

By DONNA ABU-NASR, Associated Press Writer

45 minutes ago

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia will call for a summit between oil producing countries and consumer states to discuss soaring energy prices, Information and Culture Minister Iyad Madani said Monday.

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The kingdom will also work with OPEC to "guarantee the availability of oil supplies now and in the future," the minister said following the weekly Cabinet meeting, held in the seaport city of Jiddah.

Madani said that the kingdom has informed "all oil companies it deals with as well as countries that consume oil that (the kingdom) is ready to provide them with any additional oil they need."

"The Saudi Cabinet has instructed Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi to call for a meeting in the near future that will include representatives of oil-producing countries, consumers and companies that work in extracting, exporting and selling oil to look into the price hike, its causes and how to deal with it," said Madani.

The Saudi announcement comes just three days after the biggest single-day price leap ever, when oil surged more than $11 to surpass $139 per barrel.

Retail gas prices rose further above $4 Monday in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, following the unprecedented price rally.

The kingdom will work to ensure there will be no "unwarranted and unnatural oil price hikes that could affect international economies, especially those of developing countries," said Madani.

"There is no justification for the current rise in prices," he said.

On Monday, light, sweet crude for July delivery fell $4.18 to $134.36 a barrel in volatile trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"It's not a situation that's going to move the market today," said Phil Flynn at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago, suggesting that there it might have a more long term effect. "I do think a conference is warranted, we need to sit down."

Jim Ritterbusch, president of the U.S.-based energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates cautioned that such meetings have taken place in the past and could be more an effort to calm the market without taking concrete measures.

"It's not anywhere near as significant as if they called an emergency OPEC meeting," he said. "It seems to me to be more political than anything ... They're reaching their worry threshold."

The Saudis are concerned that sustained high oil prices will eventually slacken the world's appetite for oil, affecting them in the long run.

Investors last month shrugged off news that Saudi Arabia had increased production by 300,000 barrels a day after a visit from President Bush, who sought a major production increase.

Energy experts say most producers have little ability to expand output. The exception is Saudi Arabia, which is producing about 9.4 million barrels a day and has the ability to increase production by about 2 million barrels a day, but has not done so.

"In the current circumstances, every barrel that can be used is being used," said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy. "Unless the Saudis and OPEC suddenly produce some oil that nobody has heretofore known about, then this meeting is likely to produce no meaningful outcomes."

The current president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Chakib Khelil, has said that the cartel will make no new decision on production levels until its Sept. 9 meeting in Vienna.

________

Associated Press Writer John Wilen contributed to this report from New York.


Its OPEC and we are on their schedual, their next meeting Sept 9th- d**n them

Every time I even see the title of this thread I roll my eyes.  It is potentially the biggest lie ever told on BR, and that's a BIG statement seeing that this is a fishing forum.  I can't believe it's gotten to over 100 posts. ::)

The price of oil is a hotter topic right now than the presidency or the war in Iraq, both of which are disallowed by the rules to really be talked about on here.  The title of this thread is way off...way way off and should be called "Oil Price Discussion" or something along those lines.

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