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roadwarrior

Gustav May Be Upgraded To Category 2 Hurricane

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I got the email yesterday, the Red Cross is already sending volunteers!  It would be my luck to get called up for my first national disaster right as we have our offer on a new home accepted!  My wife can move everything on her own, right??? :P

To those of you interested in tracking weather:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Great website we use for great weather info!

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I sure hope that thing does not come here. I hate boarding up  >:(

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And on Sunday it will be turning north while in the center of the Gulf of Mexico - with projected sustained winds of 120 mph.  Looks like somewhere on the Gulf coast is going to get hammered.

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And on Sunday it will be turning north while in the center of the Gulf of Mexico - with projected sustained winds of 120 mph.  Looks like somewhere on the Gulf coast is going to get hammered.

From NOAA

The historical data indicate the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the outer uncertainty area about 60-70% of the time.

So in other words, they're wrong 30-40% of the time.   ;)

5 day storm path predictions are way too unreliable.  If you recall, TS Fay was in almost the same position Gustav is now and was predicted to move up the east coast of Florida and strike the Georgia/So.Carolina coast as a hurricane.

Obviously that forecast was wrong.   ::)

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60-70% of the time is good enough. Whether the prediction is right and the storm is in the center of the Gulf heading north, or it's wrong and its to the east or west of the center and heading north, someone's going to get hammered - 100%. That's unless the storm becomes cooperative and makes a u-turn and drives out of the Gulf into the Atlantic. I'd say there's about a, hmm, 0% chance of that.

60-70% is the chance an area from Panama City to New Orleans gets hammered.  90% is the chance an area from Tampa to Brownsville gets hammered.  

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This storm has great potential. Pay attention if it comes your way.

8-)

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The storm has now already jogged South, outside of 24 hour storm track.

If I was living on the gulf coast I don't think I'd pack my bags just yet.

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I don't know where y'all are getting your information but as of 5:00 am EDT Thursday August 28 2008 public advisory #13 Gustav is still a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. the center of tropical storm Gustav was located near latitude 17.8 north and longitude 75.6 west of about 80 miles east of Kingston Jamaica and about 170 miles south of Cuba. Gustav is moving toward the southwest at near 8 mph, a turn toward the west is expected later today and to the west-northwest on Friday. The center of Gustav is expected to pass very close to Jamaica later today.

Gustav is not expected to make landfall on the gulf coast until Tuesday morning some where between Brownsville Texas and Pascagoula Mississippi.

This information is per NOAA's National Hurricane Center

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/280902.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/090212.shtml?5day#contents

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It is sounding like Gustav is going to dump a ton of rain, so the winds MAY not be spectacular, but I heard the weather channel guy say that Jamaica may get 1-2 FEET of rain from this TS!

As a sidenote, for those of you in the hurricane path, or for those with family members (especially the elderly) who have concerns about keeping contact with family members, register with the Red Cross "Safe and Well" system at www.redcross.org or call 1-800-red-cross.  This will enable families affected or displaced by the storm to update their families current location/status via the Red Cross.  This is a great way to keep tabs on loved ones, and to let concerned family members know you are okay after the storm!

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I don't know where y'all are getting your information but as of 5:00 am EDT Thursday August 28 2008 public advisory #13 Gustav is still a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.

It made landfall as a hurricane days ago in Haiti.  There is other land down there besides the US.   ;)

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Yelp it was a hurricane for less than 24 hours  ;)

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Catt, in case you didn't already know, kickoff for the LSU game has been moved to 11:00am Saturday.

:)

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The LSU-Appalachian State football game is now scheduled for 10 a.m. Saturday, LSU and governor's office officials decided today.

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Five of the NOAA models and tracks now put this storm as growing to a class 3 hurricaine, heading slightly West of a direct hit to New Orleans. I am getting my info from NOAA and form Accuweather. Storm warnings will go up soon < Landfall predicted sometime around the early Hours of Tuesday 9/2/08. I am praying for what friends I have left in New Orleans.

Hey Catt is that similiar to the question about wjhere i was getting my info about the coming recession , about 7 months ago

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Yelp Gustav still a tropical storm and we aint in no recession ;)

145214W_sm.gif

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Hey Tommy: You sure you do not have any Sicilian blood in you. You may be the one man on the planet to have won an argument with my grandfather

Here is the wind expectancies for Tue morning. New Valid Readings and Proijections due later this evening. NOAA is really the most dependable of all

post-16127-130162960583_thumb.gif

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The LSU-Appalachian State football game is now scheduled for 10 a.m. Saturday, LSU and governor's office officials decided today.

Yes, 11 ET. Sorry I didn't clarify! Good luck to you all!

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Again Muddy your chart shows Tropical Storm Wind Speed Probabilities and it makes the red through purple look impressive. Now look at the Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities which are not as impressive. It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer and as an engineer researching data is what I do.

023114.gif

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Muddy Carol told me to quit picking on you so here's the deal, data can be made to read what ever you want it to read so anyway don't give me statistical data as an argument because I'll eat your lunch; look over at the $EC has no equal topic.  

I don't know about Sicilian blood but us Cajuns like to argue to no  ;)

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Hey Tell Carol that a good ,respectful arguement can lead to new ideas or the clashing of 2 mooks! Either way,no harm. I used that not for wind speed but to show that the projected path will put New Orleans on the NE part of the winds, most dangerous part of the storm!

 It's now a hurricaine again and growing in strength. I am heartbroken and worried about whats left of my friends there.

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