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A-Jay's Annual Ice Out / Open Water Countdown Thread ~ 2025-2026 Edition

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45 minutes ago, gim said:

The problem with that is the window is much shorter in time length and I often miss out on it.

I personally prefer it when there is an extended period of prespawn

Glad we could help.

Have fun and stay safe.

smiley

A-Jay

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  • According to my wife's FB I caught my 1st LM bass of the Year on April 2nd in back to back years on the same lake at almost the same time of day, ironic. My projection..... April 2nd 😁

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After two days on the roof clearing snow, besides being mostly gassed,

I am very glad to be that much closer to open water.

Clearly it doesn't look or feel like we are, but the calendar does say February, so I'm going with it.

Tanker Tuesday isn't officially until tomorrow.

But this is my thread, and I make the rules up in here.

So it's happening today.

Late August a few seasons back, after struggling to get on early morning topwater bite,

I found a wad of bait holding at the bottom on an inside weed edge on a big flat.

The right bass were there as well, and I fed them an A-rig.

Man they hit that rig hard.

When the smoke cleared, these were the best two.

Both were at the far end of the 5 lb scale.

Pair of A Rig bass br.png

73 Days and a wake up.

smiley

A-Jay

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2 hours ago, A-Jay said:

Late August a few seasons back, after struggling to get on early morning topwater bite,

I found a wad of bait holding at the bottom on an inside weed edge on a big flat.

The right bass were there as well, and I fed them an A-rig.

August and A-rigs aren't something generally mentioned together. Thinking outside the box paid off big for ya. Good job my friend.

The ice is out on the ponds in town. That makes the third or fourth ice out this winter, depending on how I count it. There are some advantages to this wacky winter in the moment, but I grow more apprehensive with each week. Fire season is going to be BAD this year. Montana is at about 70% of nominal precipitation. Wyoming is the same boat while Colorado, Utah, and Washington are in even worse shape.

And, that's only half the story. Those numbers only track how much precipitation has fallen, not how much is frozen on the ground. There is no snow below 6000 feet. Above that it is equivalent to late April snow pack.

Can I get some of your northern Michigan winter?

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11 hours ago, MontanaBasser said:

Can I get some of your northern Michigan winter?

Be careful what you ask for.

You might end up on your roof with a shovel.

Perhaps instead of asking for our winter, you might consider begging for the Pre-Spawn.

large.246284923_6.20-cleanBR.png

smiley

A-Jay

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Still lots of this going on ~

large.Ice_hard_water_Lake_Menderchuck.png

But it's Tanker Tuesday and for this one,

I'm dropping an 'Other Species' specimen into this thread.

large.1827715790_20May2018BiggerBrownTrout1cleanBR.png

65 Days and a Wake Up

smiley

A-Jay

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Absolutely gorgeous trout A-Jay. I wish we had those, I'd definitely spend some time chasing them.

We've FINALLY clawed our way out of the deep freeze here in OH. Mostly lows in the 20's and highs in the 30's and 40's in the extended forecast. Open water is several weeks away, but we're trending in the right direction. There's currently about a foot of ice on our lakes, with 8" - 10" of snow on top of it.

Have not run the snow blower since 29-November-2025:

  • 31-January stood outside working "parking team" for graduation...it was -4 to star the day.

  • A week later, 7-February, waterfowl hunting as the temps got in to the upper 50's.

  • Yesterday, 9-February, reached record high of 74 degrees(!).

  • Today the high temp should be mid 40's.

Hope to have the boat in the water the first week of March...

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I love that brown trout pic. Every time you pull it out.

I have a target this year to catch a laker. They are in a couple lakes here but the big lake I spent a lot of time in last year has so many that they raised the daily limit to promote taking more out. They are open water cruisers so it will be a FFS scenario I'm sure. Pretty sure I had one chasing last year but the wind was so bad I couldn't keep up with it on the screen.

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May be a doodle of text

A storm system will bring mixed precipitation to much of northern Michigan starting Tuesday evening and lasting through much of Wednesday. There is high potential for 4” or more of snow,

and high potential for 0.1” or more of ice accumulations across northern Lower.

Parts of northwest and north-central lower Michigan have a low chance to see icing in excess of a quarter inch. Like we didn't get enough of that mess last spring.

Finally, Mud Season this year should be spectacular!

Either way, it's Tanker Tuesday ~

This red-eyed mutant choked the Thunder Goby in some pretty skinny water.

Cloud cover helps with that, I think.

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58 Days and a Wake-Up.

It could happen.

smiley

A-Jay

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Quincy Bay still looks like Alaska, but daytime temperatures are above freezing and @Saltysmalljaws is down the Cape doing his open water dance …. Everything’s still locked up, but I’m betting there’ll be some fishable water in three weeks.

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Well... My outboard mechanic says I fish too much. 😂 I got the Suzuki serviced today. Oil and lower unit lube changed, new plugs and the water pump impeller changed. The first impeller change was at his recommended three years. It was thrashed, so he recommended I do it every other year because of the hours I put on it. It was thrashed at two years also. Looks like an impeller change is gonna have to be an annual thing. It's a good problem to have. 😉

The snow is largely gone and we have a few more days of unseasonably warm weather coming, along with rain. That'll thin the ice some, but we have a ways to go. I'm guessing 3 weeks before the maiden voyage of 26, if the forecast holds. 🤞

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On 2/10/2026 at 9:56 AM, DaubsNU1 said:

Have not run the snow blower since 29-November-2025:

A couple of my neighbors hadn’t used theirs since March 2023. We’ve had such mild, snowless winters here the past 2 years that they shoveled it instead.

Of course their snowblowers have just been sitting in their garage with old gasoline that has ethanol so now when they try to start them, it’s a failure.

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@T-Billy - do you troll with the gas engine and is that what’s hard on it? Just curiosity on my part.

I’m sticking with my mid march ice out for the bulk of the lakes here. One might be ice free right now since I’m not sure if it freezes in winter but even with the warm could days we’ve had there is still a lot of ‘frozen’ going on. But, the small stream at the bottom of the hill is flowing now and it only takes a couple days of that before it the bigger creek it dumps into is flowing. When that size starts flowing that means a couple of the lakes around are getting some good water coming in. There is one lake nearby that I couldn’t fish at ice out in years past because it is trout stocked and the lakes was closed from mid march to mid April. But the regs changed this year and that lake is viable from ice out so I’m going to be on it before the weeds start getting bad (250 of the 300 acres tops out matted by June). It is also shallow and has a decent stream flowing into it. So with a good warming spell it might be fishable early.

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5 hours ago, casts_by_fly said:

@T-Billy - do you troll with the gas engine and is that what’s hard on it?

Yeah. I don't troll much through most of the year, but I troll A-rigs as slow as it'll go right after ice out and again late in the fall. 1.8 - 2.2 mph seems to be the sweet spot. I put at least 80hrs of that on it last Nov - Dec.

We have lost over a foot of snow overnight here, lots of rain, lots of rain for the amount of snow we have especially.

Gonna be a messy next 24 hours, with all the standing water most things will be akin to an ice rink by morning.

On 2/17/2026 at 7:00 PM, gim said:

A couple of my neighbors hadn’t used theirs since March 2023. We’ve had such mild, snowless winters here the past 2 years that they shoveled it instead.

Of course their snowblowers have just been sitting in their garage with old gasoline that has ethanol so now when they try to start them, it’s a failure.

Broke record...73 degrees yesterday. Tomorrow high temps in the lower 30's with a dusting of snow. Likely not enough to warrant breaking out the snow blower.

All the local lakes are now ice free. But NE Game & Parks probably won't get the docks back in the water for a few weeks. I'm working house projects...before it is time to FISH!

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10 hours ago, DaubsNU1 said:

Broke record...73 degrees yesterday. Tomorrow high temps in the lower 30's with a dusting of snow. Likely not enough to warrant breaking out the snow blower.

All the local lakes are now ice free. But NE Game & Parks probably won't get the docks back in the water for a few weeks. I'm working house projects...before it is time to FISH!

Docks ?

We don't need no stinking docks . . . .

Maybe hip boots but not docks.

Also, this deal seriously reduces boating 'traffic.'

Stay Safe

🙂

A-Jay

@A-Jay, you are not wrong! I need to step up my game.

With my previous boat, the old Rich Line, I had to put on the chest waders every time. Kind of nice not having to do that...but I guess if I really want to fish early.

...and, it's 21 degrees this morning with 20MPH northwest winds...and they are now calling for 3-6 inches of snow(!) HA!

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4 minutes ago, DaubsNU1 said:

@A-Jay, you are not wrong! I need to step up my game.

With my previous boat, the old Rich Line, I had to put on the chest waders every time. Kind of nice not having to do that...but I guess if I really want to fish early.

...and, it's 21 degrees this morning with 20MPH northwest winds...and they are now calling for 3-6 inches of snow(!) HA!

Clearly we have to select our fishing days carefully all the time, but especially early and late season.

Wet foot launches for me are best when the wind is not crazy (calm) or blowing my rig onto the trailer.

Especially helpful when I recover. Doing this with full rig that weighs probably close to 3K lbs

can get sketchy, and there's definitely a learning curve.

Winters in the home gym surely help.

Sudden wetness is always an indication that I jacked something up.

Best one was when I stopped the rig too soon and in too deep a water during recovery.

When I slipped off the bow to retrieve my truck, I filled my boots with 40-degree water.

There was some sailor language uttered along with the inevitable shrinkage.

I have since 'marked' my push pole as a double check to ensure

I am positioned sufficiently shallow as not to repeat that debacle.

In the past 9 years, I've only seen one other human do this with a full-sized rig.

He was running solo, also clearly not a rookie and he made it look easy.

Stay Safe

A-Jay

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Woke up to a balmy minus 6 degrees this morning, and both dogs had cold paw.

According to the NWS, this morning's temp is 18 degrees below normal.

In my mind, minus anything is below normal !

But I digress, because it's Tanker Tuesday.

As this gorgeous girl went into the Frabil April before last,

she was added to the ever-lengthening list of fatties who just could not resist the Shrimp 110.

large.5.86cleanBR.png

51 days and a Wake up,

which at this point is looking more like wishful thinking than reality.

Fish Hard

smiley

A-Jay

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A-jay has tanker Tuesday. I have wishful Wednesday today. Took a ride to the lake that I thought might not freeze. Wishful thinking. I jumped on the dock and it wouldn’t move. Jumped on the thin ice and not a crack or sound. Looks more than a couple inches in the main with only a tiny sliver of water along shore on a mud bar. So now it’s officially ice out watch for me. Mid march still seems right at this rate, but nothing in the 10 day forecast says rapid melt. And we’re only 18 days to mid march.

IMG_3369.jpeg

Obligatory Wednesday catch (because I fish a lot of wednesdays).

B3A4AE6C-305F-4607-BAD3-EC4905A08BFC.jpeg

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32 minutes ago, casts_by_fly said:

A-jay has tanker Tuesday. I have wishful Wednesday today. Took a ride to the lake that I thought might not freeze. Wishful thinking. I jumped on the dock and it wouldn’t move. Jumped on the thin ice and not a crack or sound. Looks more than a couple inches in the main with only a tiny sliver of water along shore on a mud bar. So now it’s officially ice out watch for me. Mid march still seems right at this rate, but nothing in the 10 day forecast says rapid melt. And we’re only 18 days to mid march.

IMG_3369.jpeg

Obligatory Wednesday catch (because I fish a lot of wednesdays).

B3A4AE6C-305F-4607-BAD3-EC4905A08BFC.jpeg

I like it.

Well, not the ice part, but everything else.

smiley

A-Jay

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well, maybe I spoke to soon. Maybe I'm getting too excited over 10 day forecasts. Maybe it's silly season and we just want it to end. The next 3 days haven't changed, but the snow is basically gone form the forecast now. The sun and warm through the weekend will help clear some of this but 50's and rain will put a hurting on some ice. If this holds it might just pull me back on track for mid march.

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