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A-Jay's Annual Ice Out / Open Water Countdown Thread ~ 2025-2026 Edition

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Well, I have two local lakes that are fully open! I can’t say for sure when they open but it’s been within the last 48hrs. My original prediction was 3/17 so I wasn’t too far off.

The weather was nice today (almost 70) but for the foreseeable future it’s back to typical March weather a mixture of winter and early spring so I won’t be launching anytime soon. Plus, I have some to replace the batteries and trailer bearings.

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  • A-Jay
    A-Jay

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  • According to my wife's FB I caught my 1st LM bass of the Year on April 2nd in back to back years on the same lake at almost the same time of day, ironic. My projection..... April 2nd 😁

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8 hours ago, Hartwood71 said:

Yep, NY/NJ border snow is gone also. In fact, today I can finally put a couple boards into the dam to begin raising the lake level - the goal is 2-3 feet increase by late May. Hallelujah.

Dropped 30" of boards into the dam today. Going to gain a ton of spawning acreage and forage refuge. I'm now officially fired up and the ole' patience is under serious pressure. The struggle is real.

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  • Super User

The ponds here are deicing around the edges, especially if they have some water flow or an open north bank. I think the warmth from today will keep melting some more tonight and the sun tomorrow (and hotter!) is going to get some more melt done. It’s enough that Wednesday afternoon I’ll swing by the little ponds and try to catch a couple dinks.

I also found that the big lake has a USGS camera at the dam so you can see the ice status. That’s also where the ramp is. Lots of melt progress there. The local guy posted drone shots and all of the first melt areas (around docks, under bridges, etc) are starting. Two more days of 75 and sunny are going to knock a LOT of ice off the water.

@Hartwood71 - which lake is that? Private I assume.

Thursday, 5-March was boat-maintenance day: oil and filter, new plugs, changed lower unit oil, installed batteries, installed MEGA 360, checked all electronics, and loaded the rods.

First day on the water was Sunday, 8-March. Temps were pushing in to the 70's by the time I left, around 3 PM. I predicted 15-March would be first day on the water.

Water temps were 44-45. Just one bite. It was great to be on the water...bonus, no issues or problems with the boat.

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Not going to say much about 'the weather,' as it is still early March in the North Woods, so . . . . .

Either way, we have recently lost at least half the snow on the ground, my roof is bare, and we can see small random patches of what looks like it could be grass. Sort of encouraging.

Maybe 37 days and a wake-up is possible ???

We'll have to wait and see.

But it's Tanker Tuesday.

This one is from last June and is brought to us most proudly by my wife.

Big 1 br.jpg

smiley

A-Jay

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That’s a nice chunk. I love seeing the big heads on largemouth. They just scream 5+.

The ponds here went from “just a little on the edge” yesterday to mid gray in color and a good bit more thawed today which means the ice is getting THIN. I think by mid day tomorrow they should largely be cleared so I’m going to go check out the little ones over the hill. Doesn’t count for my ice out prediction date (that will be the day the boat drops in) but a dink will make me a happy man.

@A-Jay - that is a nice catch !!

It looks like here (west central MN) Winter is raising up it's middle finger at Spring -- snow tonight/tomorrow/and Saturday -- with single digits and high winds across the next 6 days -- bare grass had been seen, driveway had been snow/ice free, lakes were having thin (maybe a foot or two wide) open water near water inlets -- but winter will be screaming back in for about a week. Blah !

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All night we had wicked thunder, lightening and downpours being blown sideways in a stiff wind.

We woke to realize, it wasn’t rain falling, but ice. First response? Please not again.

(For reference, search #icestorm2025 )

Looking out at what remains of our trees absolutely flipped my stomach (we lost at least 75% of our trees last March)

Our pines, barely recovered from last year, are caked in ice weighing them down to the ground.

Our birdhouses have been transformed to igloos and the south side of our house and shed are caked so solid, I couldn’t break the ice (didn’t want to cause damage) to open the door and get out.

May be an image of tree

https://www.facebook.com/ThePAWZ/posts/pfbid0g6AmEwvcrKbftaX1yP6Q4Y9msoUWzsQAELdBn3UpTyHCqW5hWkrKMB6tBQLCEqN2l

A-Jay

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Ugh. That sucks. I hate ice like that. Our power infrastructure is such that ice storms like that knock power out all over the township every bad storm. The good news is that spring is imminent for you. Hopefully this is the last of it for you.

Wishful Wednesday is now watching Wednesday. Took a ride to the big lake because the water board update said they were pumping water in. They’d only do that if the ice was off and that’s 98% true. There was a patch of ice about 100x200 yards which couldn’t be more than an inch thick. Of course it was all right in front of the ramp. Even with the temp drops it will be gone before the weekend (when I have plans of course).

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31 Days and a wake up and I was sort of hoping I'd be a little closer to what is happening in that first Pic.

SMB in the Frabil BR.jpg

Sadly, this is what I was doing today.

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The prospect of open water locally in April is looking like a pipe dream at this point.

smiley

A-Jay

@A-Jay

- that looks like a significant dump of snow - positive that you have that Honda Super Snow Thrower !

We only got about 8 inches - but with 55 mph winds there were some deep drifts and plenty of road closures - the temps dropped hard and we were at a brisk minus 22 wind chill - minus night-time temps will persist thru the week - so it might be a May ice out here as well

  • Super User

Well, I’m going to call it a ‘win’ on the ice out prediction from me. I don’t know the exact date, but it was last week at some point and today was the first day of the boat on the water. I said mid march so that’s basically that. The lake ice is gone, but with 22 degree overnight lows and wind last night the waves sprayed/lapped up on the downwind shores and there are ‘ice bushes’ everywhere. The water was 38-39 degrees and the air was 35 so today wasn’t about fishing as much as it was just getting the boat onto the water, giving it a shakedown, and getting me out of the house. To those ends, successful.

The black dog also got her first ride in the boat. Also successful.

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10 minutes ago, casts_by_fly said:

Well, I’m going to call it a ‘win’ on the ice out prediction from me. I don’t know the exact date, but it was last week at some point and today was the first day of the boat on the water. I said mid march so that’s basically that. The lake ice is gone, but with 22 degree overnight lows and wind last night the waves sprayed/lapped up on the downwind shores and there are ‘ice bushes’ everywhere. The water was 38-39 degrees and the air was 35 so today wasn’t about fishing as much as it was just getting the boat onto the water, giving it a shakedown, and getting me out of the house. To those ends, successful.

The black dog also got her first ride in the boat. Also successful.

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All of that looks very good.

Congrats

A-Jay

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The longer this hard water season lasts,

the more I feel like I have in common with Uncle Fester.

35 The Addams family ideas to save today | addams family, adams ...

A-Jay

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^ You mean besides looks?

(runs and hides)

First time out in southern NY, yesterday. Still some flash ice early in the day, but managed first northern LM of 2026 on a +1. A 'purdy' little thing, all upward from here.

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I'm probably going to be on the road most of tomorrow, so I'm dropping this one tonight.

Winter is overstaying its welcome, and the ice just won't seem to leave, leaving me with nothing to do but impatiently wait out this hard water. Still, it’s Tanker Tuesday, and I’m looking back at this chub—my first Lake Menderchuck fish of 2021. April fishing is always a chaotic mess, and I had to wait for a cold & wet front to pass before getting out there. That afternoon trip really delivered, though, producing a few more impressive brown bass.

large.326712885_07Apr20215.38lbSMBclean.png

23 Days and a Wake-Up ~

smiley

A-Jay

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It was a cold but sunny morning, and so after Lynn's treatment, we snagged a couple of cups of Joe,

and took a ride over to local Lake Menderchuck.

This was the first one of the year, and admittedly, we expected to see the frozen white hate.

Well, the winterness did not disappoint us.

Totally locked up and not looking like there's going to be any change to that.

At least not in the immediate future.

Might return in a week or so to take a peak.

In the meantime, if the air temps would warm just a tad, I could be convinced to start loading the Pro-V bass with some tackle. Just don't want to have to be wearing gloves while I do it.

I will be so happy when the world here is green again.

smiley

A-Jay

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20 minutes ago, A-Jay said:

I could be convinced to start loading the Pro-V bass with some tackle

#Operationpayload

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2 minutes ago, gim said:

#Operationpayload

Just like every year, before I start, I'll tell myself

"I'm going to carry a bit less gear this season."

It just never happens.

Ever.

But I'll keep saying it and then not doing it.

I have problems.

yes

A-Jay

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Here we are, last days of March.

Melting conditions have been mostly favorable the past week or so.

However we did have thunder, lightning & hail.

Which my dogs really enjoyed at zero dark thirty.

I'm looking at a mere 16 days & a wake-up.

I can almost taste it .. . . . .

Not sure that's going to happen at this point, but I'm going to be ready either way.

Keeping with the Tanker Tuesday theme:

Here's a 6.48 lb cold, super early-season jerkbait-choking mutant.

large.6.48facialcroppedbr.png

smiley

A-Jay

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with your wealth of pictures over the past number of years and the broad behavior of smallies to revisit areas year after year, have you ever looked at pictures to see if maybe you caught the same fish again? I'm sure you have at least a couple times given how many you catch, though that would be a bit of time looking back through them to compare unless there was one pretty distinct.

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2 hours ago, casts_by_fly said:

with your wealth of pictures over the past number of years and the broad behavior of smallies to revisit areas year after year, have you ever looked at pictures to see if maybe you caught the same fish again? I'm sure you have at least a couple times given how many you catch, though that would be a bit of time looking back through them to compare unless there was one pretty distinct.

Admittedly I haven't gone back to look.

I think it may have happened a few times in the 10 years or so I was fishing from the canoe.

But those were really small bodies of water (#puddles) compared to what the Pro-V bass is routinely gunning across.

smiley

A-Jay

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