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A-Jay's Annual Ice Out / Open Water Countdown Thread ~


A-Jay

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109 Days to go ~

 

This doesn't exactly apply here today (raining),

but it most certainly has in the past 

and will not doubt again in the very near future ~

image.png.20e9750247b49fdd22901c5001dbf43d.png

:smiley:

A-Jay

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21 minutes ago, A-Jay said:

This doesn't exactly apply here today (raining),

Been raining here since yesterday afternoon too. Over an inch so far. Quite odd for mid December, but we needed some moisture.

 

Bad news if you like to ice fish, snowmobile, or ski.

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17 minutes ago, gimruis said:

Bad news if you like to ice fish, snowmobile, or ski.

All my snow is way gone.

Looks and feels like mid-April.

This is a Huge snow & winter fun destination.

Skiing, snowshoe action and of course Ice fishing.

Especially over the holiday/school break.

We are surrounded by MILES of nicely groomed snow machine trails

- all over the northern part of this state.

Tourist $$$ is depended on.

Not a banner year here for that deal.

:smiley:

A-Jay

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48 minutes ago, A-Jay said:

All my snow is way gone.

Looks and feels like mid-April.

This is a Huge snow & winter fun destination.

Skiing, snowshoe action and of course Ice fishing.

Especially over the holiday/school break.

We are surrounded by MILES of nicely groomed snow machine trails

- all over the northern part of this state.

Tourist $$$ is depended on.

Not a banner year here for that deal.

:smiley:

A-Jay

 

Totally understand that even if I don't really participate in much of those winter-type activities.  Those activities are big winter business here in MN too.  

 

Given how much snow we had last winter (90+ inches, 3rd most on record), I am fine with having a more mild version this time around.

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April 1st every fool knows that is the date.

Tom

 

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3 hours ago, gimruis said:

At this rate your countdown may need to be drastically reduced.

And people thought my selection for when Tonka opens up was way too optimistic....still have open water on the larger bays.

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5 hours ago, gimruis said:

At this rate your countdown may need to be drastically reduced.


I feel like there were plenty of comments in the previous annual thread about ice out predicting early open water or even never closed water. And yet it was April anyway…

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8 hours ago, casts_by_fly said:

I feel like there were plenty of comments in the previous annual thread about ice out predicting early open water or even never closed water.

Not here there wasn't.  We were already under about 2 feet of snow this time last year, and the entire western half of the state plus both Dakotas were essentially closed for travel.

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101 Days ~ But to what ? ? ?

 

Well this is an interesting turn of events.

For the FIRST time that I can remember, since we retired to northern Michigan,

Some of the bigger Lake Menderchucks Are Presently OPEN Water !

At least the few that have 'live web cams' are.

Not sure if they even ever iced over yet. 

Today and for the next two days, air temps are close to or above 50 degrees.

#bizarreoworld

My property looks and feels more akin to April than late December. 

Not exactly sure how this is going to play out but I don't expect it to hinder my hopes

of an early ice out any. 

Great Lakes seem to be open water at this end as well.

Locally, no one's Ice Fishing, what little skim ice there may be is,

is way too sketchy for even the most brazen.

Either way, I'm still waiting but expectations just took a jump.

Might I be floating in Mid-March ?

Don't even tease me. 

 

Still, it's 'Tight Line Sunday'.

This pre-spawn fatty is from 2020 and was my biggest Smallie that season. 

large.06_May_2020__1st_5er_clean.png.50e9858c9257123d8f171feb5ac70ea7.pnglarge.06_May_2020__5.88_scale_clean.png.c272c29a3f94b900183532b2eca914a0.png

:smiley:

A-Jay

 

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7 minutes ago, A-Jay said:

Today and for the next two days, air temps are close to or above 50 degrees.

Same here.  The high is 54 degrees today which will set a record for Christmas Eve here.  Rain is moving in as well, so whatever sketchy ice was out there will be gone after an inch of rain, or even sketchier.

 

Looking out 10-14 days, there really is no arctic cold fronts on the horizon either.  Maybe closer to "average" temps but certainly nothing resembling a deep freeze.  And almost no snow.

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Got this thing primed and ready. 
IMG_0496-compressed.jpeg.5ff95925482d28e020f72336c437f2c7.jpeg

No action to speak of yet though, and nothing in the 2 week forecast. Of course that could change at any time, but I’m enjoying the lack of snow and ice for now. 

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41 minutes ago, Jar11591 said:

Got this thing primed and ready. 

Haha.  Mine was ready to go in late October.  Its still ready to go.  I just ran it yesterday for a few minutes.

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large.Firstsnow28Nov23.JPG.65d60edd62ba8ae4707202a195fbae11.JPG

 

Hard to fathom at this point,

but I've already used mine a couple of times this 'winter'.

And I'm using that term is the tradition sense . . . . 

:smiley:

A-Jay

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NJ has an entire week forecast from 35-55 degrees the next 7 days before it drops down, but I bet the drop is just the model reverting to long term averages.  At this rate I’m targeting January bass. 
 

@A-Jay- you’ve talked about your ice out philosophies here for large brown bass and what they do. Without ice, there is no ice out. Then what?

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10 minutes ago, casts_by_fly said:

@A-Jay- you’ve talked about your ice out philosophies here for large brown bass and what they do. Without ice, there is no ice out. Then what?

I have not ever pursued SMB that didn't spend a significant time under the ice.

Maybe This Is the Year.

I could 'guess' what I might do, but there's enough of that on the web as there is.

And very little of it's actionable.

Either way, the conditions need to be reasonable for the basshead, namely me.

So if the air temps and wind speeds stay within acceptable parameters,

I may find out but I don't do iced up guides. 

Time will tell.

:smiley:

A-Jay

 

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Strangely enough, I'm eying the 10 day to see if New Year's Eve is a possibility!

I have cams on my home lake and it's wide open today. This week stays in the 30's at night and hits 39-40 during the day; next Sunday may be possible! I'd dig the boat out for 1 more run.

 

Blower is primed and ready but it doesn't like I'll pull the cord for at least another week.

As far as an ice-out date on my home lake...very hard to tell. We've had some mild winters where I thought, "Awesome! We'll be out early this year"; then it turns cold and changed everything.

 

If I wanted to nail down a date, I'll go with April 3rd on my Menderchuck

 

Hope everyone is safe and well

Smokin'

 

 

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In light of this most recent development regarding open water everywhere up here this Late December, I set aside the entire morning to go check at least three of these places for myself.

It was a cool partly cloudy morning with air temps in the low 30's.

Totally enjoyed my ride in the new GMC and as I arrived at each lake,

I enjoyed that much more.

This wildly mild winter so far is starting to rub off on me.

Unless we get a total deep winter weather pattern starting very soon,

and lasting well into late April, I'm not certain these places will ever develop any significant ice.

And the little that does show up might not take much to melt away.

Feel like I should step up my off season gear prep schedule by at least a few weeks anyway.

Either way, didn't see this one coming.

large.LakeMenderchuck329Dec23BR.jpg.4ab5e3294c8be2582f14e1c5cb5ba193.jpglarge.LakeMenderchuck229Dec23BR.jpg.f24fc4bcdd73d8053380f2225a880c9f.jpglarge.LakeMenderchuck129Dec23BR.jpg.03ae3757cbd99e6d02a7360a0a70b63c.jpg

:smiley:

A-Jay

 

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I hear ya ~ I just started that process as well. 

Usually do pace myself by doing 3 or 4 a week beginning mid December or so.

Pic is just the casting reels but add in the spinners and I'm at it until at least the 1st week of March.

Hasn't ever been a reason to 'speed' that up.

Until now.

Oh My.

:smiley:

A-Jay

 

large.Castingreelspre-cleaningBR.jpg.ab59a6faf1116d171047ba54fb5af55b.jpg

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Last year around Christmas the susky was almost completely locked up.  No ice anywhere not even a skim. On the ponds. I do not particularly like fishing this time of year unless it’s through ice. 

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We still got major open water here...couple of the smaller lakes in the Tonka chain have re-opened, and the larger bays are almost ice-free.

 

Cooler weather coming, but I don't think we're gonna see any ice-shanties out this year...be nothing but portable tents.

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