What's your prediction for a Krakenpalooza?

[Swamp Girl]

You might remember my landing lots of thick bass at the end of 2024 in a bog that drained down to a river:

 

 

I had a 70-bass day too:

 

 

I was falsely told that the dam leaked, but later learned that they opened the dam and released the bog water to inspect the dam. The water is steadily returning since they closed the dam and come the spring of 2025, the bog should be back. When the water was low, I wasn't the only one catching bass. There were raptors and I assume many mammals feasting too, as the mud of the drained bog had thousands of tracks in it. I'm not exaggerating the number of tracks. There were tracks atop tracks atop tracks.

 

Anyway, here's my thinking: In 2025, there will be fewer bass in the bog because birds and beasts ate hundreds/thousands of them. The bass that survived the predators are all fatter entering 2025 because they too feasted when the biomass was squeezed into the river and going forward, they'll continue to feast with less competition. So, I'm thinking 2025 could be a banner year for quality, not quantity, and 2026 and 2027 even better. Do you agree?

 

I have caught bass between six and seven pounds in this bog and I'm hoping in the coming years that I can catch seven and eight-pounders given that there are fewer bass competing for the baitfish. The caveat is that this is a boggy, bogly bog with weeds everywhere and hooking a Kraken is a long ways from landing it. 

[Bankbeater]

I'd be pitching into the brush as the water comes back up.

[Catt]

IDK 😉

 

2007 was my best year ever on Toledo Bend, the lake level was 15' low. I generally target 15' +/- 3', which means where I normally fish I was walking around kicking dust. I ended the year with 11 double digits including a 12 lb 8 oz PB. 2008 the lake level came back up to normal, the fish scattered & the big bite fell off 

[Catt]

https://www.bassresource.com/bass-fishing-forums/topic/207216-most-fish-ever-caught-in-a-season/

[Team9nine]

2 hours ago, Swamp Girl said:

So, I'm thinking 2025 could be a banner year for quality, not quantity, and 2026 and 2027 even better. Do you agree?

I’d say “it depends” - primarily on what size fish suffered the most (if any) due to the drawdown. Big fish need more of everything to survive, whereas little fish can live happily in a puddle. If the big fish had enough refuge to survive, and got to feast on the consolidated smaller fish, it could be a big fish haven for a couple years. If the big fish survival requirements were compromised and they suffered greater mortality, it could be a dink-fest for several years to come.

 

Will be interesting to read your reports from there next year to see which way the scales of life tipped.

[Swamp Girl]

15 minutes ago, Team9nine said:

If the big fish survival requirements were compromised and they suffered greater mortality, it could be a dink-fest for several years to come.

 

I hadn't considered that. Fingers crossed.

 

15 minutes ago, Team9nine said:

Will be interesting to read your reports from there next year to see which way the scales of life tipped.

 

I'll have a pretty idea which way the scales tipped come May. Toes crossed too.

[TnRiver46]

We have a lake they have drained a little over halfway twice to repair the dam. It was way better both times upon refill 

 

at least 50% of bass die every year without doing anything 

 

I’d bet you will be in for some good fishing, quality and quantity, unless it was drained to completely empty 

[Functional]

we had a severe drought in my home lake the year before I moved in and its taken a while for it to bounce back. Lot of little fellas but the big guys took a hard hit. I'd say it took a good 4 years before things took shape to what they are now....and its still not recovered to what I'm told it was before I moved here. 

[Swamp Girl]

16 minutes ago, Functional said:

we had a severe drought in my home lake the year before I moved in and its taken a while for it to bounce back. Lot of little fellas but the big guys took a hard hit. I'd say it took a good 4 years before things took shape to what they are now....and its still not recovered to what I'm told it was before I moved here. 

 

I'm hoping enough of the big ones survived to really gorge without the competition of the normal bass biomass. 

[Susky River Rat]

I think it will be a mixed bag. Not all the big or small fish left. The better question will be how has this effected bass that can still breed and their breeding grounds? 

[softwateronly]

I'm with most of the people responding that it's probably a mixed bag, but my amateur statistical knowledge says the odds are not in your favor.  It takes a lot going right for you to have such a productive bog for old big bass in the north, and to me the odds are that a dip is to be expected.  Is the dip this year or in 5 years seems to be the harder question to guess.  I hope I'm wrong.

 

scott

[Swamp Girl]

Just now, softwateronly said:

I'm with most of the people responding that it's probably a mixed bag, but my amateur statistical knowledge says the odds are not in your favor.  It takes a lot going right for you to have such a productive bog for old big bass in the north, and to me the odds are that a dip is to be expected.  Is the dip this year or in 5 years seems to be the harder question to guess.  I hope I'm wrong.

 

scott

 

I'm actually excited to get back out there and see how many survived. If the biomass is considerably shrunk, I'll enjoy the challenge of fishing for the wily bass that survived. 

[softwateronly]

1 minute ago, Swamp Girl said:

 

I'm actually excited to get back out there and see how many survived. If the biomass is considerably shrunk, I'll enjoy the challenge of fishing for the wily bass that survived. 

No doubt you'll get them!  You might need to temper your expectations to 20 bass mornings

 

scott

[Pat Brown]

Based on @Catt thread about his success in TB in '17 - when spring hits - if you got some time before full pool - I'd fish that low water hard!

[Swamp Girl]

1 hour ago, Pat Brown said:

Based on @Catt thread about his success in TB in '17 - when spring hits - if you got some time before full pool - I'd fish that low water hard!

 

I don't understand what you mean by full pool, Pat. A little help?

[LrgmouthShad]

Low water consolidates fish into predictable places. In 2023 when my home lake Stillhouse dropped gradually to over 20ft low, the fish set up on channel swings and at the end of main lake points. I could run points all day and catch fish. When the water level came up due to severe flooding early this year, they scattered. It also nearly eliminated the hydrilla. In a few short months, the lake resembled nothing that it was before. Water level fluctuations are just as important as any other conditional consideration. Of course, the level fluctuations tend to be pretty pronounced in TX. 

[Swamp Girl]

The bog goes up and down for sure, but I found high water made fishing easier in 2023 when a couple feet of water atop the lily pads and other weeds made it possible for me to cast right over them with no interference. I could cover so much more territory. 

[LrgmouthShad]

6 minutes ago, Swamp Girl said:

The bog goes up and down for sure, but I found high water made fishing easier in 2023 when a couple feet of water atop the lily pads and other weeds made it possible for me to cast right over them with no interference. I could cover so much more territory. 

Yeah, there’s an argument for both sides. Someone that is really good at flipping bushes would probably much rather the water to be high. Look at the 2021 Bassmaster Classic on Ray Roberts. That lake was flooded in June and they put a whooping on the fish. I would rather the water to be low on a lot of the places I fish. 
 

A bog in Maine is so much different than a big reservoir in Texas anyways. 

[pdxfisher]

If they are there you will rack and stack them! The drawdown will likely have been most detrimental on smaller fish. Maybe fewer fish but better average quality is my guess.

[papajoe222]

Sound reasoning, but that don't mean it'll happen that way.

  One of my favorite natural lakes was drained because of all the 'rough' fish it contained. Sport fish and table fare were hard to come by. On a lake fed by the Wisconsin river, it overflowed the earthen dam and there was nothing left but puddles. After rebuilding the dam, the lake returned to normal pool. 

Fast forward five years and which lake do you think was producing bigger fish? The natural lake. The elimination of the rough fish allowed the new crop of  sportfish  better forage to feed on.  It's doubtful that, except for the stocking of musky, the numbers of those fish changed, but the forage numbers did.

In your case, like the lake initially fed by the WI river. Nothing really changed once it refilled. How that bog will fare once water level returns to what it was will remain to be seen.  For your sake, I'm rooting for more big ones and fewer numbers.