We have a big time warming trend hitting this week:

 

 

One night this week where it gets below 40 and only just barely.

 

Yesterday was extremely warm too.

 

How are you guys attacking a 7 day stretch of 70 degree days in mid January?

 

Past experience has taught me to start looking at spawning bays sooner rather than later.  The bigger ones don’t know that it’s not spring - they just feel it warm up and see that crappie and sunfish aren’t infesting their nesting grounds and set up shop.

 

Surface temps were already back in the low 50s yesterday and I predict mid 50s by mid week.

 

My experience has taught me that these early spawning fish will set up more on staging areas and even spawn on the points leading back into the main coves.  
 

What are some other early spawner/staging areas you like during a false spring and how do you typically fish a day when it’s warming.

 

I have found that during these warming events - it pays to fish sunrise as though it’s April or May - it seems like the bigger fish don’t know that it’s not April or May during weeks where it does this.

 

Anyone else have similar weather coming in this week and how do you plan to be one step ahead of the bass?

North of you just a little, I'm following the bait as long as I can.  Some recent days the gizzards are already getting well up the creeks.  Next day they can vacate to main lake almost completely. They are in big tight schools right now - 2D will get completely blacked out with them.  Just getting a spoon down through without snagging is success at times.  

When they ignore big spoons, they will still hit blades on the bottom.  

  I'm seeing more and more cruisers mid depth off the bait balls, but without FFS, they are elusive.   Occasional jerkbait or Arig bite, but I suspect those are going to be more active in next two weeks.  Honestly, I am more excited for my comfort than how the bass might react to air temps.  Surface temps are still 44 and I don't see that changing a whole lot, but I may be wrong.  Some rain would be nice so water can get moving a little.  Lakes are down and not much getting pulled through the dams right now.  Choke points are always worth checking, but bait is really roaming anywhere lately. 

I’ve been seeing gizzards like that one near the surface in 2 feet of muddy water!  They almost look like carp sometimes when they’re huge like that.

 

I wonder if the vegetation and large bluff banks are keeping my smaller lake a little more protected from the wind that drops surface temps.  It was in the mid 40s after the big cold snap a couple weeks back but it’s been steady climbing and a lot of protected areas were in the low 50s this weekend.

 

Totally wild.

 

Those suspending schools in mid depth are a really good sign - the bait being at the back of pockets right now blows my mind.

 

I think the real kicker is nights not getting below 40 for 6 days - that’s a big big deal usually in late February or March.  Gotta figure it could move a substantial number of fish in a hurry if they feel that it’s stable-ish.

I'm going out Thursday but it might just be a pipe dream as overnight lows are still in the 30's.

Yes 60* Thursday but got a feeling water temp will be in the 30's as well.

Plan is to rely on sonar and throw some blades.

Just getting out will be worth it.

Stay safe 

 

Here in Iowa we had open water for one day then it froze back up the next.  Thin ice now so it won't take much to thaw.  When it does I will fish the same way I did just before freeze up as water temps will be 39-40-41.  BUT if we get sun and a strong, warm south wind I will be fishing a spinnerbait or a trap on flats next to deep water.

2 minutes ago, Lottabass said:

Here in Iowa we had open water for one day then it froze back up the next.  Thin ice now so it won't take much to thaw.  When it does I will fish the same way I did just before freeze up as water temps will be 39-40-41.  BUT if we get sun and a strong, warm south wind I will be fishing a spinnerbait or a trap on flats next to deep water.

 

I think I’m gonna be fishing a trap a lot this week for sure - always seems to be deadly when it’s a cloudy warm spell in January!  Cloudy water - seems like even better usually .

Its Wart time. I seek out steep, rocky, sunny banks. Parrallel cast Warts , Mudbugs or whatever crank you fancy and retreive slow.

2 hours ago, scaleface said:

Its Wart time. I seek out steep, rocky, sunny banks. Parrallel cast Warts , Mudbugs or whatever crank you fancy and retreive slow.

 

that’s a cool idea - I was having bang up success with this as temps fell into the 60s and 50s in the early fall - makes sense that the bite comes back in the Prespawn!  I’ll have to give it a try this week.  Thanks for the tip!

I'll have to try that, also.  All my best walls have a lot of wood; I've tended to avoid cranks and use jigs, or jerkbaits kept a little off - in my mind pausing a jerkbait seemed more likely to pry them off the walls.  But I probably should try cranking them more

A few years ago I spent the 1st week in Feb near the TX/LA border and caught my PB twice. The first one was on a day like Wednesday midday, mid creek arm in about 5 feet of water. The biggest and my current pb was on a day like Sunday morning in the cold on the first deep dock near the main lake in 8-9’ of water. Maybe this is useful. Good luck!

 

scott
 

 

fishing the same areas in east tennessee as when cold(bluffs, main lake points, channel swings) but they usually just move up a bit. shallow jerkbait & pumping an a rig just under the bait balls will continue to be pretty effective here from now through easterish. I think the warmer weather brings out more fisherman than it does changing the fish patterns, wouldn't stray too far from your deep mostly unbothered fish. Longer days seem to effect fish migration more so than water temps around these parts. only 39 days left until the sun sets at 700pm

 

Same as with any weather, I drag a purple worm on the bottom and catch small fish  😂 

 

and look at pictures of big fish that @jermination2.0 sends me…….

That’s interesting @jermination2.0 - I completely agree that the majority of fish wait for much more substantial changes in weather patterns but I think that the bigger females that are residential creek fish are chomping at the bit and feed on things that slide back and forth in and out of the creeks more - so they behave a little differently than the pelagic fish that follow food.  There are creeks on my lakes that never stop firing - weather seems to move these fish around a LOT more than the deeper fish - HOWEVER- on my lakes the deep schools get WAY more pressure this time of year than creek fish by a thousand miles.  This is FFS season here in NC so I do okay studying fish and bait and bird behavior and learning how to tango with the lonely un fettered cold water creek fish.  They will definitely burn you though - biting and around one day and gone the next - usually somewhere close but confusing!

 

Also worth noting - the shallower the average depth of your lake and the more grass - I believe the more weather affects the bait day to day.

 

Deeper spots with no grass I won’t see a single living thing up shallow til April some years but if there’s grass - there will be shiners on the banks days after ice thaws.

1 hour ago, Pat Brown said:

That’s interesting @jermination2.0 - I completely agree that the majority of fish wait for much more substantial changes in weather patterns but I think that the bigger females that are residential creek fish are chomping at the bit and feed on things that slide back and forth in and out of the creeks more - so they behave a little differently than the pelagic fish that follow food.  There are creeks on my lakes that never stop firing - weather seems to move these fish around a LOT more than the deeper fish - HOWEVER- on my lakes the deep schools get WAY more pressure this time of year than creek fish by a thousand miles.  This is FFS season here in NC so I do okay studying fish and bait and bird behavior and learning how to tango with the lonely un fettered cold water creek fish.  They will definitely burn you though - biting and around one day and gone the next - usually somewhere close but confusing!

 

Also worth noting - the shallower the average depth of your lake and the more grass - I believe the more weather affects the bait day to day.

 

Deeper spots with no grass I won’t see a single living thing up shallow til April some years but if there’s grass - there will be shiners on the banks days after ice thaws.

I dont know when it isnt FFS season in these parts lol I could definitely see the deeper fish getting more pressure on the deep clear lakes Fontana, Hiwassee, Santeelah etc but IMO those fish are less susceptible to the dreaded cold front lock jaw. To your point i had 19.4 best 5 on watts bar last weekend until about 130p all caught on main lake points and bluff ends, pulled into a creek and fished for an hour and half or so, only got one bite but it was a 7.3 largemouth

Observations or conclusions?

I got little. There were a couple days where I picked up a few on mid depth flats...maybe 10 fow, but most everything still coming from 26-30 foot on the bottom. He shallower bite only last for an hour or so...got to get lucky.

Sure wish the shad would get back into giant schools soon. They scattered a couple weeks ago and not very predictable, nor predictive.

It was immensely difficult to get fish to bite.

Notable observations - fish were tucked very very tight to undercut banks - specifically places where root balls created a hollowed out area.

I spooked so many fish that just shot out from nowhere (under the bank) as I walked during the warmer days.

I saw loads of baitfish along the banks throughout the warm period.

I felt fish pushing my lipless a couple times but not slamming it at all - tried some finesse and power techniques and many different times of day and couldn’t get them to bite.

In all honestly - I will add this to my database and conclude that I have more evidence that when weather is behaving in a seasonally appropriate manner - I tend to do much better even though warm fronts can be nice for us to fish.

When winter is not too cold and not too hot - winter fishing is more approachable.

I did see some beds get cleared and saw fish occupying very shallow water but I think the seasonal ark tends to overpower the strange trends in terms of what the bulk of fish do.

It may be that when it’s appropriately cold - the bait fish are easier to consume and bass bite better - very difficult to make any real conclusions but mainly wish I had more free time to test stuff but it was a busy week while it warmed up!

I fished that warm streak 5 days ago. The air temp was 74 and the water temp was 55-59. I fish docks and riprap. This time of year I fish nothing but riprap mainly because they pull the water down and there are not much water around the docks. Also, I think the water temp gets warmer around the rocks.I caught 9 fish in about 4 hours, started a 1pm and quit about 4. 2 big fish, 4 keepers, and 4 dinks.I caught them all on a crankbait. I was cranking at normal speed, with a few pauses. Come on spring!!!