Here's a good article (if you don't mind a fact based article) on the death rates based on age and various health conditions. 

 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/these-underlying-conditions-make-coronavirus-more-severe-and-they-are-surprisingly-common/

 

Tom Hanks probably has 99% chance of surviving.  Those are good odds.  If I get the virus,  I'll probably have about a 1% chance of dying.  Those are terrifying odds. ?

9 hours ago, Koz said:

When the H1N1 virus hit the US in 2009 it wasn't until over 20M Americans were infected and over 1,000 died before our federal government took action. So while I understand why we all need to be cautious now I don't understand why so many people are in a state of panic and why so many seem to be overreacting.

 

FWIW, H1N1 ended up infecting over 60M people in the US and killing over 4,000. But I don't recall mass closings of universities or pro sports shutting down.

 

In the US the 2019 flu season has led to 280,000 hospitalizations (millions more infected) and 16,000 deaths.

 

All of the reports thus far have stated that the although it can be passed rather easily, those at high risk for death are the elderly and those with underlying conditions. Take China and most Asian countries, for instance. They have a high rate of people who smoke and they don't live in the healthiest conditions compared to western standards.

 

So by all means lets be cautious out there but at the same time lets take our finger off of the panic button - at least for the time being.

Compared to the 50% of Americans that are obese, I don't know that you'd fare much better. Plenty of smokers in the USA too.

 

Hard to say what the most appropriate reaction is either way. No matter what some will say too much, some not enough. 

Plenty of toilet paper still in Knoxville ! 

I fail to understand the run on toilet paper. Can anyone explain that to me? I was at a Sams Club this morning. They put out a stack of TP in 48 roll packs. The mountain of it was gone in minutes. People had 10 packs in their carts. What are they going to do with nearly 500 rolls? Is there a danger that Charmin will stop making the stuff? While I’m at it, why are people hoarding hand sanitizer? If I bought it all up the people I’m trying to protect myself from won’t be able to have any. There aren’t even any reported case anywhere near me!

9 minutes ago, Scott F said:

I fail to understand the run on toilet paper. Can anyone explain that to me? I was at a Sams Club this morning. They put out a stack of TP in 48 roll packs. The mountain of it was gone in minutes. People had 10 packs in their carts. What are they going to do with nearly 500 rolls? Is there a danger that Charmin will stop making the stuff? While I’m at it, why are people hoarding hand sanitizer? If I bought it all up the people I’m trying to protect myself from won’t be able to have any. There aren’t even any reported case anywhere near me!

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself 

I think the mortality rate will go down with more testing results, because certainly there are many undetected cases.  I do not think that it will drop below the flu.  Unless we are speaking about ourselves, and our own health, or someone close to us, I'm not sure where age fits.  Can I even say "okay boomer" when grandma gets a cold?  Like I said before, no reason to panic, but no reason to be foolish either.

21 minutes ago, Scott F said:

I fail to understand the run on toilet paper.

Ever run out?  

The TP shortage is based on the fear that the entire US will be quarantined. We will not be able to leave our home without being infected. Kinda like if CV was the Walking Dead 

13 minutes ago, J Francho said:

Ever run out?  

Did everyone run out at the same time? This is my local WalMart.

TP, bottled water, canned goods, pasta, rice, hand sanitizer, and various surface cleaners are in short supply.  Facebook is not in short supply of pictures depicting empty shelves with stupid captions.

1 hour ago, Scott F said:

I fail to understand the run on toilet paper. Can anyone explain that to me? I was at a Sams Club this morning. They put out a stack of TP in 48 roll packs. The mountain of it was gone in minutes. People had 10 packs in their carts. What are they going to do with nearly 500 rolls? Is there a danger that Charmin will stop making the stuff? While I’m at it, why are people hoarding hand sanitizer? If I bought it all up the people I’m trying to protect myself from won’t be able to have any. There aren’t even any reported case anywhere near me!

The inside cardboard roll is made in China.  That along when people shop and it is not on the shelves, they panic.  TP and bottled water sell out first. On Amazon, premium TP is back ordered for a month.....don’t ask how I know ?

2 hours ago, TnRiver46 said:

Plenty of toilet paper still in Knoxville ! 

?

 

 

First case here in Maine just announced. We're late to the party but the party begins.

3 hours ago, J Francho said:

So, probably a good idea to take action earlier, to prevent a similar outcome.

That's what we've done. The first steps were taken by our government when the news came out of China that they were in the midst of an epidemic. Unfortunately our politicians are doing what they do best - politicize the issue.

 

The other issues we seem to be facing are that of lobbyists trying to steer profits in their direction and companies trying to financially capitalize on the issue. While I support a free market economy, it seems too many companies still put shareholders above all.

 

At least Mark Cuban stepped up and said he would do the right thing.

If people really want a clean butt toilet paper is not the answer. Water and soap is, or a bidet, or a wet cloth you can rewash if you really need to. Ask a dog how clean you really are. You're not.

 

Get a cheap bolt-on bidet on amazon for $35 bucks and eliminate many issues regarding toilet paper usage (cleanliness, irritation, the jalapeno effect  ), including the cost and environmental impact. TP is so 19th century.

1 minute ago, schplurg said:

Ask a dog how clean you really are.

If you get an answer, you got bigger problems than COVID-19.

For the sake of argument, lets exclude the CFR rate, part of the quarantines & shutdowns is to reduce spread/case load due to the immense burden on the medical infrastructure this virus has on it. No one can argue about the high % that need ICU care. Look at the current data in Italy, hopefully that isn't mirrored here. The info in the link was from Liz Specht: Assoc. Director of Science & Technology UCSD PhD, JHU ChemBE. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

 

Simple graph that demonstrates this curve.

 

The other is truth, think of others that may be especially susceptible to having a severe reaction to it.

 

16 minutes ago, Not_Here said:

 

 

I don't think many people are disputing the above, but rather the solutions that are being implemented. 

 

We know the group's that struggle to survive it (over 70, lifelong smokers, existing health issues), those are the people who need to self quarantine.  If you are at risk, take the proper precautions.

 

If you have a nut allergy, why would you expect the rest of the world to not eat nuts just in case they later come in contact with you?

 

 

3 hours ago, Scott F said:

Did everyone run out at the same time? This is my local WalMart.

The Walmart here in Crossett, AR is all but out too!

 

I agree that this isn't good and precautions need to be taken. I agree with the NCAA, NBA, MLB, NHL and NASCAR as far as canceling events or not having fans in attendance. This seems to be a moving target, but from what I'm reading or seeing things are getting somewhat blown out of proportion. As long as you are reasonably healthy, you should be just fine if you get it. Fever, aches and coughing. One guy tested positive and didn't even know that he had it. The vast, vast number of people worldwide seem to be surviving.

@volzfan59, what takes you to Arkansas? Someone was just tested positive in Knox county, and I completely forgot that I talked to a customer that just returned from Africa........

Speaking of widespread panic 

 

 

My son just attended a state conference in Tulsa yesterday where he won 2nd place in the state in web site design (he's not athletic, more techie lol) and he qualified for Nationals in Washington DC in May, certainly hope it isn't canceled in fear that someone's grandma in Nevada may get the coronas.

 

Daughters softball tournament for this weekend was just canceled as well. I told my wife that bass don't carry it so I was going to quarantine myself at the lake.

7 minutes ago, jbsoonerfan said:

My son just attended a state conference in Tulsa yesterday where he won 2nd place in the state in web site design (he's not athletic, more techie lol) and he qualified for Nationals in Washington DC in May, certainly hope it isn't canceled in fear that someone's grandma in Nevada may get the coronas.

 

Daughters softball tournament for this weekend was just canceled as well. I told my wife that bass don't carry it so I was going to quarantine myself at the lake.

Its hard to get sneezed on if youre sitting on a main lake point with the boat in 12 feet of water casting into 6..... Ok except maybe at chickamauga 

23 minutes ago, Not_Here said:

For the sake of argument, lets exclude the CFR rate, part of the quarantines & shutdowns is to reduce spread/case load due to the immense burden on the medical infrastructure this virus has on it. No one can argue about the high % that need ICU care. Look at the current data in Italy, hopefully that isn't mirrored here. The info in the link was from Liz Specht: Assoc. Director of Science & Technology UCSD PhD, JHU ChemBE. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

 

This article is fear mongering at its best. 1 million US cases? Really?!? The total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases is currently 127,863. The virus was confirmed at the end of December, but according to epidemiologist at the CDP, it realistically appeared as early as November 2019. The whole infections doubling every six days is nonsense, and here's the proof: China has 80,932 case with that number leveling out since the beginning of March (the 2nd to be exact). For a country with 1.386 BILLION people, it should have exponentially have grown. Instead, infection rate has slowed to about 100 cases a day. Where's the doubling, I mean it is 10 days later and China is still sitting at 80k cases. 

 

As a first responder, I do have access to current data, some of it has been released for the public thru the CDC while other is operational knowledge only so we can do our jobs. When my mom, who is in her 70s, called the other day asking if she could go to the movies for a matinee tomorrow, I told her to enjoy herself and just practice good hygiene, i.e. wash/clean hands before eating or drinking at the movie theater and practice social distancing (6 foot rule) if possible. I made sure she had links to the CDC get up to date information and the Florida Department of Health website  as they have some nice infographics for prevention tips, when to get tested, and how to tell the difference between allergies, the flu, and Covid-19. 

Hope they dont cancel fishing .  ?

Did you overlook this part in the article Fishing_FF?

 

"Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster (or slower) in the short term as diagnostic capabilities are ramped up (or not), but this is how fast we can expect actual new cases to rise in the absence of substantial mitigation measures."

 

I was making a point why quarantines, social distancing are necessary. What if China didn't mitigate, what would those numbers be if it was left to spread unchecked?