5 minutes ago, casts_by_fly said:

well, maybe I spoke to soon. Maybe I'm getting too excited over 10 day forecasts. Maybe it's silly season and we just want it to end. The next 3 days haven't changed, but the snow is basically gone form the forecast now. The sun and warm through the weekend will help clear some of this but 50's and rain will put a hurting on some ice. If this holds it might just pull me back on track for mid march.

Just for reference, I watch for 2 factors to let me know open water may be close. Regardless of the size of the body of water.

First is the snow is gone from the ice and has been replaced by water/puddles on the ice.

Second is over night air temps need to be and stay well above freezing consistently until there's open water.

During the partial open stage, lakes here will often have free floating sheets of ice that blow all over the lake. If I can fish, I do.

A-Jay

I envy your forecast, @casts_by_fly. I'm guessing we won't have something similar until April.

thanks Ajay. That was my thinking too. The snow reflects heat and slows down the melt so once that's gone there's no shield. And same thing on the overnight lows. Let the sun make some melt during the day and then don't let it freeze overnight. Rinse and repeat. That's what makes the 5-10 day forecast above exciting for me. Then past that any of the streams that get high with a warm rain help the upper ends and then wind helps break up the sheets (once the melt starts to happen). We've close enough now that I'm going to start spooling up the rest of the reels.

@Swamp Girl - you can always drive south if you're itching. My boat has two seats.

I’m liking what I’m seeing. The 11th is a Wednesday (my usual evening day) and the weekend is the 14/15th which is that mid march prediction. Might just hit it.

Supposed to get a few inches of snow tomorrow, but after that the temps shoot up to 50s, 60s, and even a day in the 70s. Gonna revise my initial estimate. Maybe on the water by end of March? This is fool’s spring, and I’m dusting off the court jester’s hat. I’m jonesin’ to lean back on a fatty.

We still have lots of snow on the ground

but it's showing signs of warming up.

Even though it's tomorrow,

This week's Tanker Tuesday submission is happening tonight.

It includes a pair of 6 lb Lake Erie mutants.

Both made possible by @Dwight Hottle

Thank you, sir.

I think these were consecutive PB's for me at the time

and the bigger bass choked a Lucky Craft 128 in American Shad.

What are the chances ?

45 Days and a Wake Up ~

A-Jay

Ah that famous little blue cooler witnessed a bunch of really quality smallies over the years. Great memories.

very nice. Wishful Wednesday this week is looking like I have some good karma to spend. An ~inch of above freezing rain plus the balance of snow melt is going to get some water moving in the streams and then next week's forecast in the upper 70's should kill any ice that's still hanging around. I don't love the temp drop, but that's just air. It won't refreeze anything. This weekend we took a trip to a lake an hour south and the upper third was open in the middle, but lots of shore ice. That will definitely be open next weekend if not sooner.

On 1/8/2026 at 3:26 PM, bp_fowler said:

My first fish in 2024 was caught February 15, in 2025 my first catch was February 27.  I’ll spilt the difference for 2026 and say February 22.

Well I was off by 10 days. Caught my first fish yesterday, four altogether. Water is still very cold. I had to fish a Ned painfully slow to get any bites.

It's been a while, but this felt pretty good.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1ES9MiA1VG/

A-Jay

39 minutes ago, A-Jay said:

It's been a while, but this felt pretty good.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1ES9MiA1VG/

A-Jay

Perhaps a slower retrieve would produce better while the water is still in powdered form? 😁

I like it. And I feel you. I have two rods ‘rigged’ behind my desk and when I’m on calls during the day (not on video) I’ll pick one up and start pitching. My 10’-30’ pitching accuracy is on point right now.

Ice is gone, temps climbing. But Marge is still buried in the back of the shop. I need to change oil & filter, replace lower unit lubricant, and get the MEGA 360 installed. Oh, and it's time to service the trailer axle bearings as well. Hopefully this weekend we can get serviced, and then on the water Sunday. Supposed to be highs in the upper 60's!

We're still locked out up here in New England but we're getting some warmer weather.

Soon enough, soon enough.

NO! NOT SOON ENOUGH! ☹️

We have been on a warming trend (west central MN) -- low 40's during the day, high 20's at night -- which created heavy dense fog in the mornings this week -- driving to work, especially when going by the lakes, was white knuckle time as deer are out and about and with fog that thick you will not see them until impact -- thankfully I had no close encounters with them -- Our winter has been up (low 40's) and down (minus 48 wind chill) with moderate snow cover (based on the number of times I have fired up the snow thrower - which is 7 this year, so far) -- At it's deepest the local lake ice was right about 24" -- there has been some melt to that and several days of big winds caused movement of the ice, but it is still thick and plenty of ice fisherman are still walking out on to ice with their sleds and buckets -- we got a little over an inch of snow last night -- My hope is with the time change and longer daylight hours that Olde Sol and warmer temps will keep the ice melt going -- My mid-April ice out prediction will hopefully be accurate.......

^ We've been having 50's/30's the past week. The snow is almost completely gone from my backyard...the front will take longer as it's almost completely shaded by the house (8' from the foundation to the street). Yesterday was VERY foggy around the lake; driving to and from my infusion appointment, at times I couldn't see the lake despite the road being only 12'-15' from the edge.

Hopefully that means a quick ice-out and I can chase bass (and crappies) soon.

The melt is on up here ~

And for as much snow & ice as we have or should I say had,

this sure is one heck of a wet mess.

No mud yet, but it's coming.

You know . . . it's coming.

A-Jay

3 hours ago, MN Fisher said:

The snow is almost completely gone from my backyard

Mine was 95% gone yesterday after some rain and a warm week...and then a dusting of snow showed up overnight and now the landscape is white again. Thumbs down

But tomorrow is supposed to be 60 degrees!

I re-spooled my reels and bought my 2026 angling license today. We'll get there. My initial guess was April 8 which is exactly one month from tomorrow.

1 minute ago, gim said:

I re-spooled my reels and bought my 2026 angling license today. We'll get there.

I'll be re-spooling the casting reels and one spinning this coming week - rest of my spinners are braid-leader, and the braid is only 2 years old. New license is also on the table and soon as the eldest g-daughter gets her ID, she gets a youth license...g-son is only 13, so doesn't need one yet...those are the two I take out most often.

Also have to teach the g-son how to use a casting rig.

We had 40-42 and 1.2” rain over the past 36 hours so that took care of a lot of snow in the woods and lawns. There is still some ice from the first snow that is packed to the ground, but it will all be gone in 2 days with the sun and heat we’re having.

I rode past a couple of small ponds on the way to run errands today and there is a little melt in the upper ends where there is some flow in, but nothing substantial. I’ll go for another check tomorrow at the ones I fish early season (with a rod in the truck) but I don’t expect to be able to fish it. But… by Wednesday I think there should be enough cleared to drop the boat in on a lake so…

As we welcome in the 2nd week of March,

we are instantly reminded of just how much this deal fluctuates.

A-Jay

On 1/20/2026 at 3:04 PM, A-Jay said:

A double like Double my pleasure & Double my fun ~

A-Jay

So genius

There is a local weather guy who tracks the big lake around the corner and posts various updates on weather, water levels, conditions, etc. Today he said that there was 16” of ice on the lake this year that is just starting to melt. That’s a lot more than I was expecting. He has three different calculation methods for ice out and all were leading him to say around march 22 plus minus a couple days. That’s about an inch per day.

The snows all gone, the snows all gone, the snows all gone!!!!!!!!!!

Finally, what a mental relief.

My wife had won a wine tasting at the local school tricky tray, yesterday was the wine tasting.

I don't drink wine, so after the tasting we went back to the house with a dozen friends, we wound up sitting outside on the deck, everyone had a great time, just to be able to sit outside.

The lakes here still have ice, but the local river is clear, tomorrow I'm going to hit the river, water should be coming down since it was close to flood stage.

Yep, NY/NJ border snow is gone also. In fact, today I can finally put a couple boards into the dam to begin raising the lake level - the goal is 2-3 feet increase by late May. Hallelujah.