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A-Jay's 3rd Annual Ice Out / Open Water Countdown Thread ~


A-Jay

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1 minute ago, Jigfishn10 said:

Me thinks that Michigan is more unpredictable than New England...?

Next 10 days here is 30*'s & 40*'s and not much snow in the forecast. Our waters are frozen with a nice layer of snow on it but the rains we're getting will change that.

 

Stay warm my friend.

Not sure about predictable - I vaguely recall cursing a few forecasts up off of Boston, Merrimac, Chatham, Cohasset, Scituate, Gloucester, Ipswich, Rye, and Portland. 

Might be a little snowier though.

:smiley:

A-Jay

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2 minutes ago, A-Jay said:

Not sure about predictable - I vaguely recall cursing a few forecasts up off of Boston, Merrimac, Chatham, Cohasset, Scituate, Gloucester, Ipswich, Rye, and Portland. 

Might be a little snowier though.

:smiley:

A-Jay

Ah c'mon, they were dead nuts on the prediction of the blizzard of '78...?

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3 minutes ago, Jigfishn10 said:

Ah c'mon, they were dead nuts on the prediction of the blizzard of '78...?

Fortunately, I was not yet employed by Uncle Sam in '78.

But I was up to no good and needed a haircut desperately. 

#zoorat

:smiley:

A-Jay

 

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1 minute ago, A-Jay said:

Fortunately, I was not yet employed by Uncle Sam in '78.

But I was up to no good and needed a haircut desperately. 

#zoorat

:smiley:

A-Jay

 

I was 12 and we couldn't get out of the house. My father look a pane of glass out of the storm door and threw me out. "Dig your way in"...?

That was a horrible storm...Although, I think we were out of school for 2 weeks.

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5 minutes ago, A-Jay said:

Fortunately, I was not yet employed by Uncle Sam in '78.

But I was up to no good and needed a haircut desperately. 

#zoorat

:smiley:

A-Jay

 

Gods - sounds like me in '78.

 

(Twin sons of different mothers?)

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1 minute ago, Jigfishn10 said:

I was 12 and we couldn't get out of the house. My father look a pane of glass out of the storm door and threw me out. "Dig your way in"...?

That was a horrible storm...Although, I think we were out of school for 2 weeks.

I was working at Kelly's Roast Beef on the Beach in Revere, MA.

Pretty sure I walked to work a few times during the 2 weeks or so lock down.

Ate a lot of Chowdah ~ !

:smiley:

A-Jay

2 minutes ago, MN Fisher said:

Gods - sounds like me in '78.

 

(Twin sons of different mothers?)

They say growing up in the 60's & 70's was wild.

 But I don't really remember much of it . . . 

beyond the music.

#rockon

?

A-Jay

 

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1 minute ago, A-Jay said:

I was working at Kelly's Roast Beef on the Beach in Revere, MA.

Pretty sure I walked to work a few times during the 2 weeks or so lock down.

Ate a lot of Chowdah ~ !

:smiley:

A-Jay

OMG...you worked at Kelly's!? That was like a summer drive on Friday nights in HS from Waltham. Now we're going to the 'way back machine'!!

Wasn't bad chowdah tho was it?

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2 minutes ago, A-Jay said:

They say growing up in the 60's & 70's was wild.

 But I don't really remember much of it . . . 

beyond the music.

What I mainly remember is getting into trouble with the parents. I think more of my summers were spent grounded than not...:devil1:

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1 hour ago, A-Jay said:

 

As entertaining as 'my prediction' may have been,

there's no way to accurately estimate, earlier or later, which way this is going to go.

Very little if anything that happens this entire month ever plays any role in if there's hard or open water in April or May for that matter.

Late March's demeanor might affect this whole deal a little.

But for my money, it's all about April. 

A Super mild one, especially early, could open it up and of course, well,

I don't even want to discuss the other option.

Looking back at my reports, I've had some very special days on the water in April & early May.

So I'm just going to do what I can to be ready when the time comes.

Is it too early to pack a lunch ?

:smiley:

A-Jay

This is dead on right here. Living in ice country is unpredictable to say the least. As I said above last year we had ice out in early March...I caught my biggest largie of the year (7lbs) on April 5th. Several years prior they were worried bout the ice not being off some of the bigger lakes for walleye opener which is the first weekend in May. We made it but it was the end of April. That's a 7 week swing so there is no way to know until its here. Case in point if you asked me last month I'd have predicted early ice out like last year...now we have been hit with one of the coldest winter storms the country has seen in forever.

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21 hours ago, Jigfishn10 said:

Me thinks that Michigan is more unpredictable than New England...?

Next 10 days here is 30*'s & 40*'s and not much snow in the forecast. Our waters are frozen with a nice layer of snow on it but the rains we're getting will change that.

 

Stay warm my friend.

Spoke too soon...6"-9" Coming our way...Thursday into Friday. Overnight lows for the weekend 15*ish.

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9 hours ago, A-Jay said:

60 Days & a wake up as of tomorrow ~

But this recent cold snap doesn't seem to be helping the cuase 

May be an image of text that says '45 40 Total Great Lakes Ice Cover (%) Ice coverage jumped over 30% in last 2 weeks! 35 (98) 30 25 Coer 15 20 tae 10 5 0 10-Nov 10-Dec 10-Jan 10-Feb 10-Mar 1973-2020 Daily Average 10-Apr 10-May Winter 2020-2021'

May be an image of map and text that says 'Great Lakes Ice Cover Feb 03 11% 42% Feb 17'

A-Jay

That explains why we’ve been seeing plenty more sunny days around here, not too much open water to make clouds. This helps two fold.
 

1: Seeing the sun even if it’s sun zero sure helps everyone’s mood, a person can only take so much grey gloomy days. 

 

2: The sun will help melt some of this snow. Right now we have anywhere from 12-18” on the ground. It’s nice and pretty for the average person, but for myself and my coworkers who have to walk through it, it’s a PITA, and very gassing. So hopefully this sun will melt some of this. 
 

As I’m writing this the weather guesser is saying another 2-4” over the weekend. ?

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May be an image of text

Been trying to be patient waiting for some of this action.

Either way still AT LEAST 59 Days and a Wake up ~

:smiley:

A-Jay

 

 

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5 minutes ago, A-Jay said:

Been trying to be patient waiting for some of this action.

Ya, we got it going on too.

May be an image of text that says '40 Normal Range Forecast High ( Forecast Low 32 34 31 Twin Cities 35 33 20 23 27 27 18 Today Monday 40 Tuesday 24 Wednesday 16 Thursday 18 Friday Norma Range 38 39 Forecast Hlgh 31 ForecastLow Saturday 32 St. Cloud 34 27 27 19 16 30 21 Today Monday Tuesday 19 Wednesday 15 11 Thursday Normal Range 40 38 Forecast High Friday ForecastLow Saturday 35 31 Pamomn 17 Eau Claire 35 34 30 26 21 25 Today Monday Tuesday 22 Wednesday 13 Thursday Snowmelt coming! Friday Saturday OCEANIC Twin Cities ISSUED:4:10 AM February'

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1 minute ago, MN Fisher said:

Ya, we got it going on too.

May be an image of text that says '40 Normal Range Forecast High ( Forecast Low 32 34 31 Twin Cities 35 33 20 23 27 27 18 Today Monday 40 Tuesday 24 Wednesday 16 Thursday 18 Friday Norma Range 38 39 Forecast Hlgh 31 ForecastLow Saturday 32 St. Cloud 34 27 27 19 16 30 21 Today Monday Tuesday 19 Wednesday 15 11 Thursday Normal Range 40 38 Forecast High Friday ForecastLow Saturday 35 31 Pamomn 17 Eau Claire 35 34 30 26 21 25 Today Monday Tuesday 22 Wednesday 13 Thursday Snowmelt coming! Friday Saturday OCEANIC Twin Cities ISSUED:4:10 AM February'

Nice ~

I would consider it a personal favor if you could please not use it all up

before it gets over this way.

Thank You in advance

 signed Mr. Frozen Face

:smiley:

A-Jay

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1 hour ago, A-Jay said:

Either way still AT LEAST 59 Days and a Wake up

Looks like you had to slightly alter the line some with insertion of the words “at least.”

 

Hey, “at least” you don’t have to use those words for the Mexican trip because that one is set based on date, not condition. ?

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How much snow do you guys have on the ground? We have about 18” in most spots. I hope the warm temps put a good hurting on the snow so the sun can get to that ice sooner than later. The overnight lows are still going to be pretty cold so the melt won’t be as fast as I’d like. 
 

Warm night, warm sunny windy days are on my wish list right about now. 

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5 minutes ago, 12poundbass said:

How much snow do you guys have on the ground? We have about 18” in most spots.

In the metro area it ranges from 4" to 12" - by me it's about 10"

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map_only.php?var=snow_depth_obs_48_h&min_x=-93.9863323503305&min_y=44.4782469967931&max_x=-92.5540296496695&max_y=45.4913070032069&bgvar=dem&shdvar=shading&title=2&width=600&height=500&font=1&lbl=m&palette=0&h_o=0&metric=0&o4=1&o6=1&o9=1&o11=1&o12=0&o13=1

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5 minutes ago, slonezp said:

Warming trend is beginning today...I think

The warming trend here isn’t going to be as warm as predicted last week, but it’s still going to be above freezing. The overnight lows are still going to be pretty cold though. 

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Just now, 12poundbass said:

The warming trend here isn’t going to be as warm as predicted last week, but it’s still going to be above freezing. The overnight lows are still going to be pretty cold though. 

Got up to 36 today. Highs have been in the 20's at best the last 4 weeks, and 40"+ of snow. 1-4" coming in overnight. The beginning of the end of winter has started. 

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Just now, slonezp said:

Got up to 36 today. Highs have been in the 20's at best the last 4 weeks, and 40"+ of snow. 1-4" coming in overnight. The beginning of the end of winter has started. 

Today was the first day since February 4th we’ve been about 30. 1-2” overnight for us. 

After the snow tonight we’ll have had 30” of snow this month. 

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It's just about 30 degrees here this morning - and no wind which is always nice.

I'm headed out into the pre-dawn darkness for some Wally World grocery shopping.

My last trip a couple a weeks ago, also early morning,

it was -15 and the wind across the parking lot was no joke !

So this morning will be down right balmy compared to last trips brain freeze. 

57 Days & a Wake Up ~

05 May 2018 3.png

:smiley:

A-Jay

 

 

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