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The Great Experiment Has Begun

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Or a cash bonus and no free ride into final round. Give each round winner $5k or something 

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  • He is THE ONLY angler in this last period using FFS. And he is THE ONLY ANGLER they are covering. IMO, TOTALLY DEFEATS the purpose of the new format. I will say that it's wildly hysteri

  • It’s early, but just ran the stats adjusted for most variables, and the answer after the first event is just over 2.5X better. In other words, for every 10 pounds caught without FFS, the Top 10 guys c

  • I stand corrected, sometimes I swear he lurks here   

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That works as well or a combo of both, you won qualifying here's 5k and you can have an extra practice day having a better idea of the weather for the final round.

48 minutes ago, Jar11591 said:

Looked like Lane’s family was right on the bank next to where he was fishing as time ran out. That must have been a cool feeling. 
 


This is exactly what I thought about too. Wheeler was saying he was going back and forth on if he wanted to keep building on his lead or try to fall to second. But man it’s got to be tough to be comfortable enough in a lead to take your foot off the gas and try to drop. Still, can’t imagine being disconnected from the lake for a whole day as the competition stays plugged in. 

 

I think he fished the third period on Friday without a hook.

3 hours ago, AlabamaSpothunter said:

These dudes are seriously going to start reconsidering winning the knockout stage and getting the bye.

 

I saw pics of Wheeler with his family at Disney World yesterday.   How you can do that in the middle of a $150k derby is wild.    It's great he spent time with his family though.  

 

You see this in the MLB playoffs, those teams with the wildcard round byes really struggle to get back on pace after the byes. 

 

Nice to see the sport still has a place for oldschool knowledge and experience even with Davis not winning.    He was a small weather front away from winning a BPT trophy.  

 

We also saw this in the CFP playoffs. I think every team with a bye lost.

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After Stage 2 here are the updated numbers according to my calculations in the great experiment.  In Stage 1 the FFS periods produced 11.26 lbs more on average than the non FFS periods.  In Stage 2 that advantage disappeared and FFS periods on average produced about 1 ounce more than non FFS periods.  For the season the average FFS advantage per period dropped to 6.67 lbs or 84% more than non FFS periods.  It will be interesting to see how the numbers change going forward.

 

Stage 2 Numbers

Total Weight: 3849.8 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period With FFS: 8.01 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period Without FFS: 7.96 lbs
Average FFS Weight Advantage Per Period:0.06 lbs
Percentage Increase in Catch Rate with FFS: 1%

 

Total Weight with FFS: 873.63 lbs
Total Weight without FFS: 2976.13 lbs

 

Total number of fish caught: 1589
Average Fish Size: 2.42 lbs
Average Fish Size with FFS: 2.32 lbs
Average Fish Size without FFS: 2.46 lbs
Percentage Increase in Fish Size with FFS: -5.6%

 

Number for the Season 

Total Weight: 9468.0 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period With FFS: 14.64 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period Without FFS: 7.96 lbs
Average FFS Weight Advantage Per Period: 6.67 lbs
Percentage Increase in Catch Rate with FFS: 84%

 

Total Weight with FFS: 3893.25 lbs
Total Weight without FFS: 5574.75 lbs

 

Total number of fish caught: 3978
Average Fish Size: 2.38 lbs
Average Fish Size with FFS: 2.35 lbs
Average Fish Size without FFS: 2.40 lbs
Percentage Increase in Fish Size with FFS: -2.2%
 

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@Tennessee Boy's stats surprise me. I though FFS was a big bass fingering machine. 2.35 pounds is about a 15" bass. I catch a few that size, but most are bigger. The average weights per angler are also lower than I would have expected. It must be a LOT harder to catch bass during a tournament when the lake is being pounded.

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6 hours ago, Swamp Girl said:

@Tennessee Boy's stats surprise me. I though FFS was a big bass fingering machine. 2.35 pounds is about a 15" bass. I catch a few that size, but most are bigger. The average weights per angler are also lower than I would have expected. It must be a LOT harder to catch bass during a tournament when the lake is being pounded.

That’s the point I keep trying to make, in the format of these BPT tourneys every fish counts. They can rack up a large cumulative weight with large numbers of 2 lb fish. In a “best 5” format , 2 lb fish won’t do any good in FLA so people wouldn’t bother targeting them 

 

in their previous stage at Conroe, many of the fish weighed would not even be legal to weigh in at a best 5 tournament 

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Bobby Lane's Biggest 5 fish on the final day.

5-10

5-8

5-8

4-9

4-8

Total: 25-11

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16 minutes ago, TnRiver46 said:

In a tournament where the best 5 isn’t what they tally up to see who wins 

Your earlier statement that they run up the numbers with dinks using finesse techniques was a problem in the first MLF season when the minimum was 1 pound.  Edwin Evers won the first Redcrest with 63 fish and 59 of them weighted less than 2 pounds. Most were caught on a finesse worm.  Since they raised the size limit you don't see this as much.  

 

I would prefer to see the minimum be 2 pounds and I prefer a five fish limit but that's just me.  We debated all this on this forum after the first season and many people preferred the 1 pound limit saying they liked to watch them catch fish.

 

Bobby Lane had a good day by any standard.

6 hours ago, Swamp Girl said:

@Tennessee Boy's stats surprise me. I though FFS was a big bass fingering machine. 2.35 pounds is about a 15" bass. I catch a few that size, but most are bigger. The average weights per angler are also lower than I would have expected. It must be a LOT harder to catch bass during a tournament when the lake is being pounded.

In every fish counts fishing for schools is a big factor, it wasn't in this tournament mostly. I prefer best five.

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84% increase in catch rate is huge. 

4 hours ago, Chris Cavanaugh said:

In every fish counts fishing for schools is a big factor, it wasn't in this tournament mostly. I prefer best five.


I do too, but I also like not having weigh ins.

A 2# bass is not a dink in my parts, A 5 # bass in Wisconsin  is not very common. 

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Bobby Lane on BTL today talking about his win and how his family was watching him from the bank as time ran out. Good listen. 

  • 2 weeks later...
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Here are the latest number in the MLF Great Experiment.  Stage 3 was a pretty heavy FFS tournament.  The average period with FFS produced 64% more weight than the average period without FFS.   This still lowered the season average down from 85% to 77%.

 

Stage 3

Total Weight: 4139.8 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period With FFS: 11.70 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period Without FFS: 7.14 lbs
Average FFS Weight Advantage Per Period: 4.56 lbs
Percentage Increase in Catch Rate with FFS: 64%

 

Season Total

Total Weight: 13631.6 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period With FFS: 13.62 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period Without FFS: 7.70 lbs
Average FFS Weight Advantage Per Period: 5.93 lbs
Percentage Increase in Catch Rate with FFS: 77%

 

The biggest surprise to me is the numbers continue to show no improvement in the size of fish caught during FFS periods.  

 

Season Total Average Fish Weight

Total number of fish caught: 5343
Average Fish Size: 2.55 lbs
Average Fish Size with FFS: 2.53 lbs
Average Fish Size without FFS: 2.57 lbs
Percentage Increase in Fish Size with FFS: -1.7%

 

Just looking at the numbers for the final day in all three tournaments.  FFS played a bigger role in the Championship rounds.

 

Season Total Final Day Only

Total Weight: 1183.2 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period With FFS: 22.30 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period Without FFS: 9.82 lbs
Average FFS Weight Advantage Per Period: 12.48 lbs
Percentage Increase in Catch Rate with FFS: 127%

 

Next up is the Red Crest at Guntersville.  I think they said that the Red Crest will be fished under the same rules that were used to qualify for it.  So no FFS restrictions if that's the case.

 

  • 4 weeks later...
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I was wrong about Redcrest.  They did use the new FFS limits so we have another tournament to added to the data.  The angler period FFS advantage for the total season dropped again from 77% to 58% as the impact of Stage 1 is further diluted.

 

Redcrest

Total Weight: 4548.9 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period With FFS: 12.59 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period Without FFS: 11.41 lbs
Average FFS Weight Advantage Per Period: 1.18 lbs
Percentage Increase in Catch Rate with FFS: 10%

 

Season Total

Total Weight: 18180.6 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period With FFS: 13.41 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period Without FFS: 8.48 lbs
Average FFS Weight Advantage Per Period: 4.93 lbs
Percentage Increase in Catch Rate with FFS: 58%

 

 

Only two anglers used FFS today and I think one of them didn't actually use it did he?

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46 minutes ago, IYAOYAS said:

Only two anglers used FFS today and I think one of them didn't actually use it did he?

Everyone used their FFS period today except the Lane brothers.  Everyone that used it did so in period 3.  Last year MLF started having the officials record if they thought the angler used FFS to catch each fish.  They recently started sharing this information so we can get an idea how much they actually use it.  Connell's official recorded that he used it on all his 3rd period fish.  Strader's official recorded that he did not use it even though his FFS was unlocked.  Paul Marks Jr moved deeper and had a good period 3 using FFS as did Jake Lawrence.

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29 minutes ago, Tennessee Boy said:

Everyone used their FFS period today except the Lane brothers.  Everyone that used it did so in period 3.  Last year MLF started having the officials record if they thought the angler used FFS to catch each fish.  They recently started sharing this information so we can get an idea how much they actually use it.  Connell's official recorded that he used it on all his 3rd period fish.  Strader's official recorded that he did not use it even though his FFS was unlocked.  Paul Marks Jr moved deeper and had a good period 3 using FFS as did Jake Lawrence.

Connell is a master of the FFS. And any other fishing tactic 😂 

31 minutes ago, Tennessee Boy said:

Everyone used their FFS period today except the Lane brothers.  Everyone that used it did so in period 3.  Last year MLF started having the officials record if they thought the angler used FFS to catch each fish.  They recently started sharing this information so we can get an idea how much they actually use it.  Connell's official recorded that he used it on all his 3rd period fish.  Strader's official recorded that he did not use it even though his FFS was unlocked.  Paul Marks Jr moved deeper and had a good period 3 using FFS as did Jake Lawrence.

Oops I had it backwards. I thought the green meant they still had it to use if they wanted it. lol I'm dumb.

  • 4 weeks later...
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Here are the latest number after Stage 4.  The average FFS period advantage for the season continued to drop to 50% from 58% as the Stage 1 FFS numbers are further diluted.  Stage 1 was an absolute Scope fest and has drastically impacted the numbers.  I've included some numbers without Stage 1 to demonstrate this.

 

Stage 4

Total Weight: 4184.6 lbs

Average Weight per Angler Period With FFS: 9.85 lbs

Average Weight per Angler Period Without FFS: 8.26 lbs

Average FFS Weight Advantage Per Period: 1.59 lbs

Percentage Increase in Catch Rate with FFS: 19%

 

Season Total

Total Weight: 22365.1 lbs

Average Weight per Angler Period With FFS: 12.67 lbs

Average Weight per Angler Period Without FFS: 8.43 lbs

Average FFS Weight Advantage Per Period: 4.24 lbs

Percentage Increase in Catch Rate with FFS: 50%

 

Season Total minus Stage 1

Total Weight: 16723.1 lbs

Average Weight per Angler Period With FFS: 10.61 lbs

Average Weight per Angler Period Without FFS: 8.55 lbs

Average FFS Weight Advantage Per Period: 2.06 lbs

Percentage Increase in Catch Rate with FFS: 24%

 

Here are the top 10 Scopers based the percentage increase in weight their average FFS period is over their average non-FFS period weight.  This shows which anglers rely on FFS the most.

 

Angler                       FFS Advantage %   Avg Weight/Period    Avg Weight/FFS     Avg Weight/Non-FFS 

Drew Gill                       502.20%                 13.87 lbs                    31.23 lbs                  5.19 lbs            

Marty Robinson            191.61%                   4.57 lbs                      8.54 lbs                  2.93 lbs            

Jake Lawrence             189.31%                 15.54 lbs                     27.57 lbs                  9.53 lbs            

Justin Cooper               179.30%                 12.75 lbs                    22.29 lbs                  7.98 lbs            

Colby Miller                   160.85%                12.25 lbs                    20.80 lbs                   7.97 lbs            

Jeremy Lawyer             138.31%                    7.17 lbs                     12.18 lbs                   5.11 lbs            

Jacob Wheeler             136.79%                 16.20 lbs                    27.35 lbs                 11.55 lbs           

Greg Vinson                  113.98%                   5.55 lbs                      8.61 lbs                  4.02 lbs            

Justin Lucas                 109.73%                   11.91 lbs                   18.29 lbs                   8.72 lbs            

Zack Birge                     102.41%                 12.86 lbs                   20.82 lbs                 10.28 lbs

 

 

SORRY,  I KNOW THESE NUMBERS ARE HARD TO READ ON SOME DEVICES.

  • 1 month later...
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Here at the updated numbers after Stage 5.  The FFS period advantage continued to drop to 45% or just a little under 4 pounds.  It might move up from here as the tour swings north.  I have no idea what to expect in the next tournament on the Potomac.  The final tournament on Saginaw Bay should be a scope fest.   FFS has played a bigger role on the final day.  I've included below the season totals for the final championship days.

 

Stage 5

Total Weight: 5248.3 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period With FFS: 12.58 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period Without FFS: 10.27 lbs
Average FFS Weight Advantage Per Period: 2.31 lbs
Percentage Increase in Catch Rate with FFS: 23%

 

Season Total

Total Weight: 27613.4 lbs

Average Weight per Angler Period With FFS: 12.66 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period Without FFS: 8.74 lbs
Average FFS Weight Advantage Per Period: 3.92 lbs
Percentage Increase in Catch Rate with FFS: 45%

 

Final Day Only

Total Weight: 2629.9 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period With FFS: 20.75 lbs
Average Weight per Angler Period Without FFS: 12.25 lbs
Average FFS Weight Advantage Per Period: 8.50 lbs
Percentage Increase in Catch Rate with FFS: 69%

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