Early winter in Northern Michigan brings a breathtaking transformation.

Where crisp, cold air turns forests into silent, snow-dusted cathedrals and

the vast inland lakes begin to wear their glassy, icy armor,

creating stunning scenes of white and blue, often with frozen lighthouses encrusted in glittering ice, reflecting a stark, serene beauty.

The landscape shifts from autumnal hues to a palette of frosted pines, deep blue water, and brilliant white snow, offering quiet majesty and the promise of winter adventure on the frozen shores.

All the Lake Menderchuckes become vast, undulating sheets of white, perfect for snowshoeing or ice fishing, with snowmobile trails crisscrossing the land and the air filled with the quiet crunch of boots on fresh powder.

Sunlight glints off the ice, creating a dazzling spectacle against the deep sapphire of the lake,

contrasting with the dark, snow-laden conifers, a truly iconic Michigan winter vista that embodies the region's rugged, tranquil charm. 

 

With that out of the way, I'm picking Friday, 17 April 2026, as my projected ice-out/open-water day. 

That put's it at 125 days from today.

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20260417T00&p0=5787&msg=A-Jay's+Annual+Ice+Out+%2F+Open+Water+Countdown+Thread+2025-2026+Edition&font=cursive

 

As always, I expect to be organizing my tackle, changing line and hooks where needed,

as well as performing any and all maintenance required on my entire arsenal. 

 

Once again, please feel free to add your local area's open water prediction

along with comments, support, and yes, even the jabs;

as I know they're inevitable & always quite entertaining.

And for those folks that can & will get out on the water while I am chasing my snowblower around my property,

don't forget to add a few pics of recent catches. 

All of which may help to pass the time

while I daydream of doing this again as soon as possible.

A-Jay

That was a very beautiful poetic description, for I'm screwed until spring.  Enjoy the scenery, I'm going to catch some bass.

Our ice came early this year, so I fear it'll leave late because it'll be thicker than normal. Being inland, Andy's Michigan gets colder than we do, but it also gets warmer than we do. We don't have warm spring days because of the North Atlantic, so whereas our January should be warmer than Michigan's, our April will be colder. In the end, I'm guessing it'll all even out and I'll got with the same ice-out day: April 17th. 

 

2025 bass:

 

We'll probably ice over this weekend. Then a warm up next week MIGHT open the lakes back up for a few days, then ..... It's Ohio who the heck knows? We might get a foot of ice or only a few inches. 

The models I saw forecast average temps and above average snow for us this winter. I'm guessing the lakes will be locked through January and February, and open by mid March.

2 hours ago, A-Jay said:

Sunlight glints off the ice, creating a dazzling spectacle against the deep sapphire of the lake,

contrasting with the dark, snow-laden conifers, a truly iconic Michigan winter vista that embodies the region's rugged, tranquil charm.

 

And you can't wait until it's gone!

 

Here's to hoping you are off by a month in your prediction and you're wet in March.

 

We'll see how NJ goes but if it's mild enough I'm hoping to get on the water at least once a month somehow.  

According to my wife's FB I caught my 1st LM bass of the Year on April 2nd in back to back years on the same lake at almost the same time of day, ironic.

My projection..... April 2nd 😁

We’ve been frozen for a couple weeks now and have already gotten a few measurable snows. Last several winters have been an early ice out from late March to early April. Hopefully 2026 is more of the same, but this winter does seem to be off to a colder start. 

So far SE Mass & Cape Cod are still open.

First fishing trip of 2025 was on 9-March. Caught a fish on my second time on the water, 21-March-2025. 

 

I'm going to say first trip in 2026 will be 15-March **crossing fingers**

It's the only time of year I'd even consider being Irish. March 17th is what I'm hoping for.

Winter has come early and harsh thus far here.  Whether that is a sign of things to come for the next 4 months, I don't know.

 

Ice out has occurred earlier than average the past couple years here.  My guess will be Wed, April 8.

 

For my entire life, I have been unable to legally target a bass until the second Saturday in May.  I have always been relegated to targeting panfish until that date.  That changes in 2026.  I don't necessarily plan to be bass fishing the day after ice out, but my hope is to certainly be out there before the second Saturday in May, weather permitting.

17 minutes ago, gim said:

For my entire life, I have been unable to legally target a bass until the second Saturday in May.  I have always been relegated to targeting panfish until that date.  That changes in 2026.  I don't necessarily plan to be bass fishing the day after ice out, but my hope is to certainly be out there before the second Saturday in May, weather permitting.

I say you will land at least one new PB brown bass (if you fish for them)

within your first 3 trips.

Bank on it.

Oh, I would encourage you to throw a jerkbait - a lot.

Perhaps something from the vaulted Megabass Vision 110 line.

Good Luck and don't get your arm broke.

A-Jay

7 minutes ago, A-Jay said:

I say you will land at least one new PB brown bass (if you fish for them)

within your first 3 trips.

 

There's a caveat with that.  The lake I target them on may be subject to an exemption.  It's complicated because the natives have netting and spearing rights there due to a federal treaty.  Their treaty states their nets can only be out between ice out and walleye opener (which is the second Saturday in May), so my thought it that this lake is going to be off limits.  That is unfortunately the only spot I can realistically target smallmouth these days.

 

Many other lakes will be available to fish, but they are largemouth lakes.  So that may be what I'm relegated to.  Still way better than panfishing.

1 hour ago, gim said:

 

There's a caveat with that.  The lake I target them on may be subject to an exemption.  It's complicated because the natives have netting and spearing rights there due to a federal treaty.  Their treaty states their nets can only be out between ice out and walleye opener (which is the second Saturday in May), so my thought it that this lake is going to be off limits.  That is unfortunately the only spot I can realistically target smallmouth these days.

 

Many other lakes will be available to fish, but they are largemouth lakes.  So that may be what I'm relegated to.  Still way better than panfishing.

Got It. 

We, IME, green bass can be pretty finicky right after ice out.  May take a couple of weeks especially if there's a cold front or two that blows through soon after open water. 

A-Jay

Today is 12/15/25.

 

The earliest I can fish is probably 4/18/26.

 

That's the first Saturday after the 4/15 tax deadline.

 

Soooo with the help from my friend Google, that's 124 days from now.

 

Gosh I can't wait to retire.

 

Not being able to fish cold water in the pre spawn blows goats.

1 hour ago, HawkeyeSmallie said:

Today is 12/15/25.

The earliest I can fish is probably 4/18/26.

That's the first Saturday after the 4/15 tax deadline.

Soooo with the help from my friend Google, that's 124 days from now.

Gosh I can't wait to retire.

Not being able to fish cold water in the pre spawn blows goats.

OK - I get it.

Most any type of fishing hiatus can be a downer, regardless of the cause.

But here's a little heads-up from a very retired guy.

Perhaps slow your roll a bit and enjoy what's going on now.

Because 'retirement' often comes with its own set of challenges.

Some of which might make anything you'd do to that goat seem pleasant.

Just say'in.

A-Jay

It's 10 degrees and snowing again.

But it's Tanker Tuesday up in here.

So here's a full grown one over 6 lb.

121 Days and a wake up ~

A-Jay

I am thinking first week of April for me. I will not count the days.

We're getting a bit of a mild spell today before the next wave of snow events.

It's kind of a nice change

And it's Tanker Tuesday once again.

Went back a few years for this blimp.

She was part of a wild morning where we had a 29-7 lb bag.

Still looking for that elusive Dirty Thirty.

114 Days and a Wake up . . . . .

A-Jay

On 12/15/2025 at 12:15 PM, HawkeyeSmallie said:

blows goats

Here in west central MN -- my local lake has had it's earliest ice out on March 21st (once) -- it's latest ice out being May 11th (several times) -- the median appears to be April 17 -- so far this has been a wicked fall/winter -- plenty of days with blizzard conditions, many nights of brutal arctic/MINUS temps -- for 2026 I believe MN will allow bass fishing before the second weekend in May, so it would be nice to get out before then -- yet based on the wickedness of winter so far I am going to say Ice Out here will be ---- April 26th, 2026 

---- 123 days to get monster fit and ready to slay an @A-Jay sized Brown Bass (even one half that size would be awesome !!) 

A little late to the party here. Let’s call it fashionably late. 😎

 

I don’t know what to make of the weather so far and for the foreseeable future. A white thanksgiving and a brown Christmas. Early snow and early ice. Now a warmup, but still frozen lakes with some even having safe ‘safe’ ice. I’m hoping for an early spring so I’m banking on the luck of the Irish and shooting for March 17.

Historically, my first ice free fishing trip of the year has always been around March 17.  I may be able to get out on the water toward the end of February, but with the temperature swings, catching is going to be very limited.

On 12/13/2025 at 12:51 PM, gim said:

 

There's a caveat with that.  The lake I target them on may be subject to an exemption.  It's complicated because the natives have netting and spearing rights there due to a federal treaty.  Their treaty states their nets can only be out between ice out and walleye opener (which is the second Saturday in May), so my thought it that this lake is going to be off limits.  That is unfortunately the only spot I can realistically target smallmouth these days.

 

Many other lakes will be available to fish, but they are largemouth lakes.  So that may be what I'm relegated to.  Still way better than panfishing.

 

I am on a state committee here in Michigan regarding treaties and Native fishing rights, I am quite confident they cannot prevent you from lawfully fishing, despite any rights they may have. My guess is, you would be expected to co-exist, etc... 

 

Their nets would obviously be clearly marked, would just have to avoid them. 

 

No treaty gives them the right to prevent any of us from doing our thing, it only gives them the right to do their thing. The Tribes do a lot of good here in Michigan, frankly they do more real science in some ways than our own MDNR and for the most part, the Tribes and State get along well here though. Not sure about your state, but I am confident that any treaty would not allow them to hinder your rights. They may be working on a plan to address this, would say that's quite likely any way, but as you say, these things are always a bit complicated and can take a bit of time... 

Its complicated.  This lake is not under state treaty rights; it's under a federal one that was upheld by the Supreme Court years ago.  The state only manages the harvest/bag limits based on the quotas that are passed down.

 

We have never had an open bass season here prior to mid May when the other seasons opened (walleye and norther pike), so I'm not really sure how this is going to work.  Remember, nearly every regulation here caters to the sacred walleye.  So in order to protect them, they make regulations for other species that has no effect on those species.

 

If state law says it's off limits, I will abide by that.  I'm not trying to "be that guy" and put a bullseye on myself or my boat out there.  I like to target prespawn fish, but not that much.

 

I won't state my opinion of the tribes publicly.  It's not a good subject here.  And I don't want to derail this thread because that's not what it's about.