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The boat market is crashing


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  • Super User

 

I didn't watch the video but I have a real life example to share.

 

My friend and I went to the boat show last January to look at boats.  He has been eyeing a Lund Adventure series for a few years.  The one he looked at and liked last January was the Lund Adventure 1775 w/ 115 hp outboard.  He contacted a local dealer here in April about one also outfitted with a trailer, bow mount, 2 graphs, and a travel cover.  The price he was quoted was $53,500.  That conversation ended pretty quickly.

 

Low and behold, September rolls around and the boating/fishing season is nearing an end here.  He goes online and the exact same boat he inquired about at the same dealer now has the boat listed for $38,500.

 

The boat had dropped $15,000 during the course of about 6 months.

 

We are tentatively planning to go to the boat show again next month so we'll see what transpires.

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  • Super User
2 minutes ago, gimruis said:

The price he was quoted was $53,500.  That conversation ended pretty quickly.

That's more than I paid for my first house....

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  • Super User
28 minutes ago, Jig Man said:

It hasn’t begun around here yet.  

The prices didn't skyrocket overnight and they won't fall over night. The video states the next 2 years will be in decline. 

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  • Super User

I am currently going through my 2005 boat and bringing it up to speed.  Fuel system, injectors, lower unit, power pole hoses, starting solenoid, upgraded jackplate relays, and more….I know of 2 fully rigged boats for sale and when I say rigged, they are maxed out.  One is David Walkers boat at $80,000 plus and one is Hank Parker’s at $90,000+.  Neither one is a consideration for me.  Could I? Sure, but my common sense brain won’t let it happen.  

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The price of a lot of things will be crashing in the next few years.  When the price of a loaded Jeep Grand Cherokee is over $100K, something's got to give.  I drove by my neighborhood Ford Dealer the other day and his lot is overflowing with new Ford cars and trucks.   

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  • Super User

None of that is happening here.  Car lots have trucks and very few cars.

 

Most around here thought there would be a glut of used campers and boats after Covid settled down.  It hasn’t happened.

 

 I have never seen cars, boats or houses go down in price.

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I look at FB marketplace every week to see if it’s getting flooded yet. In my area, unfortunately no. I say unfortunately because if they’re selling, they’re not on the lake. ;)

 

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20 minutes ago, Jig Man said:

None of that is happening here.  Car lots have trucks and very few cars.

 

Most around here thought there would be a glut of used campers and boats after Covid settled down.  It hasn’t happened.

 

 I have never seen cars, boats or houses go down in price.

Houses definitely went down in 08 but if you wait long enough they always go back up. I was down in FLA after the credit crash and there were some half million dollar homes going for 90k, would have been a good time to buy 

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31 minutes ago, Jig Man said:

Car lots have trucks and very few cars.

 

Lots are about half full here from what I've seen.

 

When I bought the Rav4 Hybrid in November, the salesman told me that the days of filling a lot of new cars and then trying to sell them is over.  The trend is now keeping inventory less than full and then filling new vehicle orders based on customer demand.  Apparently quite a few people are willing to wait for a new vehicle rather than buy one on the spot.

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I agree 100%.  There are currently dealers in all directions from me with leftover 2023s with heavy discounts and EVEN QUITE A FEW 2022s!  I am just patiently waiting...

giphy.gif

 

 

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The economy is living on credit, with interest rates high, things have slowed down and will even more after the holidays.  The big question will be in the spring....are interest rates staying up or comming down ??   There is quite a bit of talk about raising taxes to cover the bursting national budget, so...it will only take a couple big things to happen that will make or break the economy.  Glad I already have the boat I want and need, so no shopping for this old man. For those of you looking to buy or replace your boat....lots of luck, your gonna need it !!

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Automotive prices were settling down, but the recent strike cause some shortages.  Prices are all over the place now.  

 

Many people around here seem concerned about the cost of "professional fishing".  One of the keys to many of these guys making is it flipping boats.  I'm told that they don't get their boats free.  They get a decent discount, and get some equipment provided by sponsors.   IF their plan works they sell their year old boat and make enough profit to cover the interest for that year.  If there's a boat market crash these guys are going to get hit the hardest.   

 

I'm happy with my boat.  It's going on it's third year.  If prices dropped and it was 10 years old I might look around a little.  

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@gimruis that’s the lean manufacturing they preach. Which doesn’t work. My boat i ordered not many dealerships of that brand in the state. Now, a new vehicle you better have in stock or I’ll find someone who does.

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It sure isn’t crashing around here, not yet at least. I bought my current boat new in 2015, paid around $36,000 then. Just checked at the same marina I got it from and the equivalent boat right now they’re asking $73,000, with less features than mine has! 
My rig is paid off, and in pristine condition so I’m not even remotely thinking of replacing it, and honestly I don’t know how I could right now and still have the same rig. 

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Not exactly the same, but you couldn’t buy the brand of RV I had for the last few years, even used. The few that came up were well over purchase price and the manufacturer was over 12 months back logged. I noticed the other day there are now many used for sale although the prices are still as high as before. Same as homes, and I guess boats.

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19 hours ago, TnRiver46 said:

Houses definitely went down in 08 but if you wait long enough they always go back up. I was down in FLA after the credit crash and there were some half million dollar homes going for 90k, would have been a good time to buy 

 

My wife and I were in Real Estate at that time.  Previous to 2008, credit was so easy if you could fog up a mirror you could get a mortgage with nothing down.  People were flipping new houses making big money on each one.   My wife sold seven of them to one man who put up $1,000 each then sold them six months later for a $50K profit each.  Most short term investors were greedy and got caught when the market crashed. Bankruptcies were everywhere and million dollar homes were being sold for half price.  Things are different today.  Few homes were built in the ten years after the crash leading to huge housing shortages.  Florida Real Estate prices have backed off a little, but there's nothing to buy.  Sellers are stuck in their homes with low interest mortgages.   If you are going to live in your home for a long time, a house is a good investment.  If you are going to treat your house like a casino, you shouldn't buy one.  This holds true in all types of investing, not just housing.  If you had sold all your stocks after the crash of 2008 and put your money in a mattress, you would have missed out on one of the greatest market value appreciations in history.  

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Ranger boats went on a 3 day work week in 2023 and moved Triton back into the Ranger facility.  Their lot is the emptiest I've seen it in the past 12 years, and most of that inventory seems to consist of small aluminum boats designed for hunting.

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9 hours ago, Susky River Rat said:

@gimruis that’s the lean manufacturing they preach. Which doesn’t work. My boat i ordered not many dealerships of that brand in the state. Now, a new vehicle you better have in stock or I’ll find someone who does.


I was only relaying what I was told at the dealership. It could be different in other parts of the country.

 

I couldn’t just go to the next dealership when looking for a RAV4 Hybrid because no one else has them. It was 4-8 months to get one from Japan, regardless of where I went. And a used one costed more than a brand new one.

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idk ive noticed boats staying for sale longer around here and prices coming down. not crashing but starting to come down.

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I looked at Pros Choice (largest Nitro dealer) web site.  They normally beat everyone else.  Rangers are still listing at $99,000.

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We'll see what happens.  One of the things I've learned about big dollar items is if you have the luxury of waiting, it's best to save that money when the economy is booming and spend it when the economy is hurting.  Basically, do the opposite of what everyone else is doing.  

 

I can definitely see boats dropping in price.  They've been making a bunch for a while now, and most people don't use boats all that often.  So it's easy to flood the market and depress prices as demand drops.  So I'd start saving right now for that boat of the future.  

 

Cars would be a bit harder to predict.  There are some Chinese EV companies that are supposed to launch cheap EV's to the American market soon, so that could depress car prices.  We'll see how well they're received once they get here.  But with cars in general lasting 200k miles or more these days, there's not much incentive for auto makers to make affordable, instead of aspirational, cars.  They'd be in competition with the used market.  

 

As for houses.  Your guess is as good as mine.  I see dozens of things on the horizon that could push housing prices either way, or even both ways at the same time (location dependent).  I think buying a house right now is a case of preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.  

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On 12/31/2023 at 6:06 PM, Jig Man said:

Most around here thought there would be a glut of used campers and boats after Covid settled down.  It hasn’t happened.

Price crash has been “supposed to happen” across the board. Guns. Guitars. Boats. Trucks. 
 

Hasn’t happened in ANY of those markets yet, unfortunately. I doubt that it will. Prices may drop a bit, but will they “crash”? No. 

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